Freight Recession

State of the State 2025: Regulations, tariffs, costs part of trucking sector uncertainties

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

The United States has been mired in a “freight recession” for more than a year and Cass Freight Index numbers indicate it’s not over. The Index reported that freight shipments across North America were down 6.5% in December in a year-over-year comparison. The index reported a 3.1% decline from November and a 13.3% decline on a two-year stacked change. Freight expenditures were down 3.1% in December, and freight rates were up 3.3% in the same month, the Index reported.

Data within the Index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from 36 million invoices and $38 billion in spending processed by Cass annually on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers. The companies represent a broad sampling of industries, including consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, medical/pharma, OEM, retail, and heavy equipment, according to Cass Information Systems. 

Arkansas Trucking Association (ATA) President Shannon Newton told Talk Business & Politics she is cautiously optimistic the freight recession could end in 2025, and the metrics seem to be improving.

State of the State 2025: Regulations, tariffs, costs part of trucking sector uncertainties

Freight recession likely to continue into early 2025

by Kim Souza (ksouza@talkbusiness.net)

The less-than-truckload (LTL) market is faring better but still has freight volumes below pre-pandemic levels, according to Jason Miller, logistics professor at Michigan State University, who took part in a Journal of Commerce webcast on Oct. 24.

He also said the over-the-road full-truckload market is soft at best with October spot rates down a bit from a year ago.

Miller said the earliest he sees a recovery taking shape is last in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2025. He said a weaker global economy does not bode well for exports and despite the higher container volume coming into the U.S. this year, there has not been an uptick in freight demand large enough to move the needle.

Freight recession likely to continue into early 2025

Trucking industry leader discusses economy, workforce challenges

by Roby Brock (roby@talkbusiness.net)

The president of the Arkansas Trucking Association, Shannon Newton, has seen plenty of ebbs and flows in her career leading and working in the transportation industry.

Economists and trucking executives are calling current industry conditions a “freight recession” which is causing a cyclical adjustment for companies throughout the nation’s supply chain.

“It’s very much like a recession-recession,” Newton said of a freight recession. “I think we’ve defined it kind of as a contraction in the demand over some sort of measurable period. The industry numbers indicate a contraction demand two months in a row. What you see is essentially the freight economy leading the anticipated recession that hasn’t really come.”

https://talkbusiness.net/2023/06/trucking-industry-leader-discusses-economy-workforce-challenges/