by Michael Tilley (mtilley@talkbusiness.net)
Editor’s note: The State of the State series provides reports twice a year on Arkansas’ key economic sectors. The series publishes stories to begin a year and stories in July/August to provide a broad mid-year update on the state’s economy. Link here for the State of the State page and previous stories.
The nationwide recession expected in 2023 never materialized, thanks primarily to a stronger-than-expected labor market and consumer spending. The new consensus is that economic growth will continue in 2024 but weaken compared to 2023.
“It looks like we dodged the bullet on the recession that was forecasted by many economists for 2023. In fact, the Arkansas economy had a strong first half — particularly in employment. There have been signs of slower growth in the latter part of the year, and I expect that to continue,” noted Michael Pakko, chief economist and state economic forecaster at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock’s Institute for Economic Advancement. “GDP growth is likely to be slow but positive. For the U.S., a consensus estimate is GDP growth of about 1.5%. It is likely to be less than 1% in Arkansas, given the relative size of our state’s manufacturing sector.”
State of the State 2024: U.S., Arkansas economies could see dip in 2024, recovery in 2025
