by Michael Tilley (mtilley@talkbusiness.net)
The U.S. and Arkansas economies may have 99 problems, or more considering inflation, but a recession in 2023 ain’t one of them. Probably not, anyway. Or at least not a deep recession, according to arguably a growing consensus among economists.
John Shelnutt, Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration director of economic analysis and tax research, doesn’t anticipate a deep or disruptive U.S. recession in 2023.
“Most U.S. economic forecast groups currently have either a shallow recession in the first half of 2023 or a below-trend growth period during the year,” noted the economist who provides tax revenue guidance for Arkansas officials. “The differences are minor and derive from small variations in growth for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the largest GDP component. Even the shallow recession camp of forecasts shows weak positive gains for PCE in inflation-adjusted (real) terms.”
