State of the State 2023: Slower economic growth likely, with rebound in 2024

by Michael Tilley (mtilley@talkbusiness.net)

The U.S. and Arkansas economies may have 99 problems, or more considering inflation, but a recession in 2023 ain’t one of them. Probably not, anyway. Or at least not a deep recession, according to arguably a growing consensus among economists.

John Shelnutt, Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration director of economic analysis and tax research, doesn’t anticipate a deep or disruptive U.S. recession in 2023.

“Most U.S. economic forecast groups currently have either a shallow recession in the first half of 2023 or a below-trend growth period during the year,” noted the economist who provides tax revenue guidance for Arkansas officials. “The differences are minor and derive from small variations in growth for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the largest GDP component. Even the shallow recession camp of forecasts shows weak positive gains for PCE in inflation-adjusted (real) terms.”

https://talkbusiness.net/2023/01/state-of-the-state-2023-slower-economic-growth-likely-with-rebound-in-2024/

Grain, fertilizer, fuel prices impacted by Russian war in Ukraine

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has impacted many economic sectors on a global scale and agriculture will be directly affected on several fronts. Grain markets have become more volatile and high fertilizer and fuel prices are going even higher.

Russia and Ukraine account for about 29% of global wheat trade and Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter. Ukraine accounts for about 16% of global corn exports. Scott Stiles, agricultural economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said the situation will offer both opportunities and hardships for growers in Arkansas and elsewhere.

Oil prices traded at more than $122 per barrel on Monday (March 7) after it spiked for a short time to $130 per barrel. Gas prices inched towards all-time highs across the U.S. at $4 per gallon. Diesel prices are even higher and several analysts predict oil could rise to $200 a barrel before the conflict is over.

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/03/grain-fertilizer-fuel-prices-impacted-by-russian-war-in-ukraine/

Arkansas Economy Lost 44,000 Jobs in 2020, Most in Leisure and Hospitality

By ANTOINETTE GRAJEDA

The Center for Business and Economic Research in the Sam M. College of Business at the University of Arkansas hosted its 27th annual Arkansas Business Forecast event Friday. According to one economist, the majority of jobs lost in the state were in the leisure and hospitality sector and it's likely they won't all come back once the pandemic ends.

https://www.kuaf.com/post/arkansas-economy-lost-44000-jobs-2020-most-leisure-and-hospitality

Mervin Jebaraj is the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.