Cotton, soybeans are up, corn tumbles, seed shortage moves rice toward medium grain

By Mary Hightower
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture

LITTLE ROCK — The June “Acreage” report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed cotton with its highest acreage in more than a decade and soybeans on the rise, while corn tumbled and rice shuffled between long and medium grain acres in Arkansas.

Scot Stiles: “June Acreage is more or less a reality check for the March ‘Planting Intentions’ report.” (U of A System Division of Agriculture photo by Kerry Rodtnick) 

Friday’s report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, proved a hot property, with users crashing the servers shortly after its 11 a.m. CDT release.

Graph showing information about Arkansas crops from the June 28, 2024, Acreage report from NASS. (U of A System Division of Agriculture image by Scott Stiles)

“June Acreage is more or less a reality check for the March ‘Planting Intentions’ report,” said Scott Stiles, extension agricultural economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

Principle crops planted, acreage down 0.8 percent to 7.156 million acres in Arkansas; total planted in US is 315 billion acres, down 1.4 percent from previous year, NASS said.

CORN

Corn acres dropped 27.1 percent to 620,000 acres, unchanged from the March planting intentions.

“Corn prices have been on downward slide for much of the past year,” Stiles said. “Futures prices for new crop corn were about 20 percent below the previous year when NASS surveyed growers in early March.” 

Jason Kelley, extension wheat and feed grains agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said he wasn’t surprised by the Acreage report.

“Lower grain prices, combined with less-than-ideal planting conditions for some led to the drop in Arkansas acres,” he said. “The spring was too wet, especially in the southern half of the state.

“Northeast Arkansas overall had better planting conditions than the rest of the state, with dry weather in late March and early April,” Kelley said.

COTTON

Cotton acres were up 31.4 percent to 670,000 acres in Arkansas, while total U.S. acres were also up 14.1 percent.

“The huge surprise in today’s report was NASS’ cotton acreage number,” Stiles said. “In March, growers indicated they would increase acres by a modest 30,000 acres to 540,000.”

However, “in June, acres are expected to be 670,000; up 160,000 from last year,” Stiles said. “This would be the highest cotton acreage for the state since 2011, which saw 680,000 acres that year. 

He said that while there were solid indications we have 610,000 to 620,000 acres in the state, “the 670,000-acre print is surprisingly high.

“Cotton prices started a nosedive in early April, losing about 13 cents by mid-June. Prices fell from the low 80 cent level to 70 cents,” Stiles said, “But, cotton yields in the state continue to climb and growers exited 2023 with record yields.  And the crop insurance price of 82 cents this year may have played a role in adding acres.  There was some shifting from corn to cotton going on as well.” 

“In terms of cotton we're in good shape,” said Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “Some guys are in the first week of bloom and some are into the second week of bloom, but what’s really important right now is water.

“It’s getting hot and dry and want to keep putting moisture on the crop so we’re not stressing it,” he said.

PEANUTS

“Peanuts remained the same, which is what I was expecting based on what growers were saying,” Treadway said.

NASS pinned peanuts at 35,000 acres, same as in 2023.

“The peanut crop is in pretty good shape,” Treadway said. “We had some growers that had to go back and replant after extensive rainfall. Some growers are reporting their crop pegging.”

In pegging, the embryonic peanut grows downward into the soil.

RICE

Overall, total rice acres were down 15,000 acres from last year in NASS' findings to 1.42 million acres, compared to just under 1.44 million acres in 2023.

Stiles said he was a little surprised by the 40,000-acre decline in long-grain rice acres from March.

“The June survey results are a little puzzling considering the planting progress this year and the rice market rally that kicked off in early April,” he said.

“Generally, in years when planting progresses at a faster than average pace, we tend to see a higher acreage number in June,” Stiles said. “USDA did increase medium grain acres by 10,000 above their March number.”

Jarrod Hardke, rice extension agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said he too was a little  surprised by the dip, but said it was within his range of expectations between 1.4 million and 1.5 million acres.

A shortage of long-grain seed shortage played into the shuffling of acres over to medium grain, he said.

“One of the hardest things to gauge every year is the expected long and medium grain acreage, and then with a seed shortage out of the gate, that changed the mix. And it got very, very weird,” he said.

There were also some missed planting opportunities during good weather windows as growers unable to get the seed they wanted, scrambled to find varieties to plant.

SOYBEANS

NASS lowered Arkansas soybean acres by 50,000 from the March intentions to 3.05 million, however that was still up 2.3 percent from 2023. U.S. total was up 3 percent to 86.1 billion acres.

“This is still an increase of 2 percent or 70,000 acres over last year,” Stiles said. “Considering the sharp drop in corn acres, some resulting increase in soybeans is not a surprise. 

“Similar to corn, soybean prices have trended lower over the past year as well,” he said. “As planting kicked off in the state, soybean prices were about 13 to 14 percent lower compared to the prior year.  November ‘24 soybeans settled at $11.04 today.  A year ago the November contract traded at $12.66, right ahead of a summer rally that carried prices above $14 last July. A very bearish feel to the soybean and corn markets this year.”

Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist, said “the estimates were in line with what I was expecting. We had another really good start with early plantings similar to the 2023 season. 

“This year’s soybean crop ranges from early planted fields beginning to fill pods to fields that were planted within the last two days,” he said on Sunday. “With the drop in soybean prices compared to last year, I’m getting a few more calls with farmers and consultants asking about different inputs preserving or increasing soybean yields.”

WINTER WHEAT

Winter wheat acres declined 39.1 percent from 2024 to 140,000 acres. That followed the larger national trend with U.S. winter wheat falling down 7.9 percent to 33.8 billion acres.

Kelley said the decline was likely due to “lower prices for grain and lower relative profitability compared to other crops.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk. 

Arkansas planned acreage falls slightly overall; corn and wheat see deepest cuts

By Ryan McGeeney
U of A System Division of Agriculture

LITTLE ROCK — While overall intended crop acreage fell just 2.5 percent in Arkansas in 2024 to about 7 million acres, some crops saw significant shifts in acreage, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report released Thursday.

SHIFTING ACRES — The 2024 Prospective Plantings Report, compiled by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, found that acreage for most of the country’s principal row crops will likely only shift a few percentage points one way or the other this year. The report is based on self-reported planting intentions from growers across the United States. Nationally, projected crop acreage fell about 2 percent in 2024, to about 313.3 million acres. (Graphic courtesy USDA.)

The 2024 Prospective Plantings Report, compiled by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, found that acreage for most of the country’s principal row crops will likely only shift a few percentage points one way or the other this year. The report is based on self-reported planting intentions from growers across the United States. Nationally, projected crop acreage fell about 2 percent in 2024, to about 313.3 million acres.

Arkansas corn and wheat acreage take a nosedive

Arkansas intended corn acreage fell sharply, down 27 percent, from 850,000 acres to 620,000 acres. Wheat acreage also fell significantly in the state, down 41 percent from 230,000 acres to 135,000 acres. Nationally, corn acreage fell 5 percent to about 90 million acres, while producers said they planned to plant nearly 47.5 million acres of wheat, about 96 percent of what was planted in 2023.

Jason Kelley, extension wheat and feed grains agronomist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said that the significant drop in corn acreage was no surprise, given that the state was coming off a near-record-high year for acreage.

“Our acreage goes up and down every year,” Kelley said. “Last year, 2023, was the second-highest acreage we’d had since the early 1950s.”

He said profitability was likely the main driver for growers moving away from corn throughout the region.

“It looks like the whole Southeast was off quite a bit — 15 to 27 percent,” Kelley said. “The Mid-South was down 20-27 percent. So, it looks like most of our surrounding states had the same mindset.”

Similarly, wheat acreage was down in the East, falling in all but seven states.

Hunter Biram, extension agricultural economist for the Division of Agriculture, also said the drop in Arkansas corn acres, paired with a rise in soybean acres, was expected.

“Two factors that typically influence this shift are crop rotations and expected margins, with expected margins likely the driving force behind any acreage shifts beyond normal,” Biram said. “Last year, corn margins were far more favorable compared to soybeans, and that showed up in not only the Prospective Plantings report but also in the Crop Acreage Report released last June.

Over the past 20 years, soybean and corn acreage have both grown in the United States, with corn typically leading by as much as 50 percent some years. Over that span, however, soybean acreage has tightened the gap, actually tying the national acreage in 2017 at about 90 million acres each.

“This year, soybean margins appear more favorable, albeit not by much compared to corn,” Biram said. “Last year, the favorable margins were mostly driven by a relatively high corn-to-soybean price ratio, meaning corn prices were much higher relative to soybean prices. This year, there isn’t a crop price to get too excited about, but prices for key fertilizers have fallen to levels similar to the period prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Projected Arkansas hay harvests appear to be keeping pace with the previous year, with growers expecting to harvest about 1.15 million acres, 99 percent of 2023’s total.

Arkansas long grain rice surges, medium grain falls back

Arkansas intended rice acreage shifted only slightly, growing 1 percent over 2023 acreage to 1.45 million acres. However, grower sentiment appeared bullish on long grain rice, jumping 11 percent from 2023 acreage to a projected 1.36 million acres, while pulling back on medium grain, falling by 58 percent to just 90,000 acres.

Nationally, planned rice acreage grew 1 percent to more than 2.93 million acres.

Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the report’s outlook for rice was in line with spring estimates.

“Long grain rice appears to be a profitable option, but seed supply issues are hindering further increases in acres,” Hardke said. “Medium grain is in lower demand for this year with few contracts or pricing premiums available in the wake of high acres and production last year.”

Biram added that the ambiguity of global markets is likely affecting acreage decisions.

“Among many drivers in rice acreage, one could be the possibility that India reverses their export ban on non-basmati rice, which was put in place in July 2023,” Biram said. “While that proved to be favorable for rice prices in the short run, with some cash prices reported at over $8 a bushel in the post-harvest window of January and February, the new crop futures contracts for rice are already indicating prices could land around $6.75 per bushel or lower. This is because when export supply is reduced in the global market, prices increases.

“Conversely, when export supply increases due to a lift on an export ban, for example, prices fall,” he said. “Perhaps producers were able to lock in price guarantees through area crop insurance, such as Enhanced Coverage Option or Margin Protection, trying to capture the tail end of a months-long price rally driven by the export ban. Otherwise, I suspect crop rotations and less-favorable corn margins are driving the increase in long grain rice acres.”

Arkansas soybeans rise steadily

Arkansas soybean acreage grew slightly, rising 4 percent over 2023 to 3,100 acres. This puts the state’s growers slightly ahead of the national soybean acreage outlook, which rose 3 percent to about 86.5 million acres.

Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said it was no surprise to see Arkansas soybeans return to the “plus side” of 3 million acres.

“Historically, we’ve been above 3 million acres for the last several years, other than 2018-2019,” Ross said. “That’s when we had a lot of rainfall — the fall of 2018 and progressing into 2019. We had a lot of flooding issues, and 2019 was the lowest soybean acreage we’ve had since 1960.

“I think all of it points to China,” Ross said of the high acreage numbers. “China is our No. 1 destination for soybean exports. As their population increases, the demand for soybeans increases.”

He said much of 2023’s outstanding soybean yield was due to growers taking advantage of the early planting window, and that he foresees a similar fortune this year.

“Beans have been planted for almost a solid month in Arkansas,” Ross said. “Some of them look good, some not so good, mainly due to cooler weather. We had pretty much the earliest start ever last year, and we had record yields. I think some guys proved that when your beans are planted earlier, the yield potential is a lot better than delayed planting.

“Over the next seven days or so, it looks to be warm and dry, so I think there’s going to be a lot of land prep, and maybe some more beans planted,” Ross said Thursday. “I’m anticipating another good year.”

Peanuts hold, cotton grows

Arkansas producers appear to be holding steady, again planning to plant 35,000 acres of the legume, the same acreage as 2023.

Travis Faske, extension plant pathologist and acting peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said that peanut acreage throughout the state will likely be higher than the reported intentions.

“I still think we will be a few thousand acres north of 35,000 acres by the end of planting season, as the two primary peanut buying points in the state have indicated an increase in acreage,” Faske said.

Planned Arkansas cotton acreage grew 6 percent over 2023 numbers to 540,000 acres. This exceeded the national outlook, which grew 4 percent to more than 10.6 million planned acres.

“I suspect the reason cotton acreage increased by 6 percent is because cotton lint prices are more favorable compared to last year, but nothing like what we saw in 2021-2022,” Biram said.

“While crop rotations can explain most of the corn-soybean rotation, cotton acreage can likely be explained by the fact that a cotton farmer is going to farm cotton regardless of the price, due to the lack of versatility in equipment used to produce cotton,” he said. “The cotton lint price may shift acreage, but the degree of that shift will depend on what the cotton lint price is.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.