Arkansas net farm income projected to decrease for second straight year

LITTLE ROCK — Arkansas’ net farm income is projected to decline for the second straight year, a fall cushioned slightly by lower input costs, the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center said in its latest report.   

The center, working with agricultural economists from the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said in its “Fall 2024 Arkansas Farm Income Outlook” that Arkansas’ 2024 net farm income is expected to drop by 10 percent from 2023 levels and reach $2.96 billion.   

Net farm income report for Arkansas, October 2024. (Image by RAFF)

 Arkansas' net farm income is expected to see a $1.06 billion drop from its 2022 record-high levels. The report also compares the projected 10 percent reduction in state net farm income to the projected 6.2 percent decline in the U.S. net farm income projected by Mizzou’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. 

“Fertilizer and pesticides and fuel oils are going to decline by 9 percent year over year,” said Ryan Loy, extension economist for the Division of Agriculture. “These markets are finally stabilizing. They're coming off these market shocks from COVID, the supply chain issues, the trucker strikes in Canada, and the Ukraine war is kind of baked into the market now.”  

The report said total production expenses are estimated to decline 5 percent in 2024, as fertilizer, feed and fuel expenses retreat. An additional 5 percent decrease in production expenses is forecasted for 2025. 

Unfortunately, “the decrease in fertilizer, pesticides, fuel oils, and feed expenses are offset by the increase in purchased livestock expenses, which amount to a rise of $1.34 billion in 2025,” Loy said.

Cash receipts 

Farm cash receipts represent the total revenue a farm receives from the sale of its agricultural products, government program payments, and private insurance payments.  

The report said that in 2024, total cash receipts for Arkansas would decline by 2 percent or $317 million. Livestock receipts increased 5 percent, or $361 million, while crop receipts tumbled 10 percent, or $580 million. 

Ironically, 2024’s near-record yields are contributing to lower commodity prices. 

Hunter Biram, extension economist for the Division of Agriculture, said that Arkansas had  

Nearly a million and a half acres of rice which is the highest since 2020. Yield is near the record set in 2021 at 7,600 pounds per acre.  

“The price is the lowest that we've seen since 2021 when it came in right under $14 a hundredweight,” he said. 

Corn, which has had the fewest number of Arkansas acres since 2015, is forecast to have a near-record high yield. However, “the price for corn is the lowest that we’ve seen in five years.” 

Cotton was in the same boat.  

“The acreage is the highest that we've had since 2011,” Biram said. “We've got a lot of cotton acres out there, despite having the lowest price since 2020 and it’s at a near-record yield.” 

Arkansas’s 3 million acres of soybeans are projected to have a record yield of 55 bushels an acre, Biram said. “The price for soybeans is the lowest that we've seen since 2019, which is similar to corn.” 

Livestock and poultry 

However, the low prices that bedevil row crop growers is helping the cattle and poultry industry, which relies on crushed soybean and corn for feed.  

Higher egg, broiler, and cattle prices support 5 percent higher total livestock receipts in 2024, the report said, adding that poultry receipts are projected to increase by $287 million, while cattle and hog receipts are also projected higher, by $97 million.   

Loy noted that “feed prices declining this year pretty significantly – 18 percent. 

“Cattle prices are up 6 percent year over year. Most of the uptick over the last few years is due to the severe drought in the western U.S., which led ranchers to reduce herds,” he said. However, with cheaper feed, cattle prices are “expected to decline again in 2025.” 

Government assistance

The report also shows the proportion of government assistance has shifted from primarily market-based programs such as Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage — known as ARC and PLC, to supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance across this same period.

The Fall 2024 Farm Income Outlook is co-published by the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture and RaFF at the University of Missouri, which provides objective policy analysis and informs decision makers on issues affecting farm and rural finances. The center collaborates with a number of states to develop farm income projections with local expertise.  

“RaFF’s Farm Income Outlook for calendar years 2024 and 2025 is intended to inform policymakers, industry analysts, and agricultural practitioners about the expected profitability of the local agricultural sector and its main drivers. RaFF’s state-level projections complement and add granularity to national projections by the USDA and FAPRI-MU, providing valuable insights on local agricultural trends,” said RaFF Director Alejandro Plastina.   

The full report and data tables are online.  

 To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.  

Port strike would have impact on U.S. cotton, meat, poultry exports

By Mary Hightower
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture

JONESBORO, Ark. — The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday that consumers shouldn’t expect food shortages in the near term because of the port strike; however, economists say a long strike could prompt changes on grocery shelves and at the checkout.

Nearly 50,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike Tuesday after it and the United States Maritime Alliance failed to reach a settlement by the  Sept. 30 deadline.

Nearly 50,000 members of the International Longshoremen's Association have walked off the job, halting port operations on the East and Gulf Coasts. The strike may have impacts on cotton, meat and poultry exports. (U of A System Division of Agriculture image by Scott Stiles.).

The strike has shut down ports along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico, key to the movement of U.S. cotton, meat and poultry exports. These commodities are important for Arkansas, which is No. 3 in the U.S. for broilers and cotton, No. 24 in cattle and calves, according to the 2024 Arkansas Agriculture Profile.

USDA said that “our analysis shows we should not expect significant changes to food prices or availability ... we do not expect shortages anytime in the near future for most items.”

USDA also said that bulk shipping of products such as grains would be unaffected by this strike. Bulk grain loading facilities typically operate with their own employees or with different labor unions.  

Cotton and shipping

“Cotton is entirely dependent on containerized shipment,” said Scott Stiles, an extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service, 20 percent of the U.S. cotton crop has been harvested. 

“Eleven-point-eight million bales of the 2024 crop are projected to be exported,” Stiles said. “I would conservatively estimate that 55 percent of the 11.8 million bales would be shipped out of ports affected by this strike.”

Stiles said that some shipments bound for Asia can be diverted to the West Coast. 

“The East Coast has largely handled cotton shipments to markets such as Turkey,” he said. “If the strike is prolonged like the last one in 1977 that lasted six weeks, will Turkey switch its cotton purchases to Brazil or West Africa?”  

U.S. export sales of cotton are already off to the slowest start since 2015, Stiles said, and any “interruption in the U.S. ability to export only makes this situation worse." 

Eight-six percent of U.S. cotton demand is attributed to exports. 

“Producers have watched market prices slide from 85 cents in February to 66 cents in August,” Stiles said. “Prices have recovered recently to the 73- to 74-cent area but have stalled as it became apparent that the port labor dispute would not be resolved by the Sept. 30 deadline."

December cotton futures closed 52 points lower today to settle at 73.09 cents per pound.

Meat and poultry

Should the strike be prolonged, consumers could be seeing changes.

“Approximately 20 percent of broilers are destined for export markets,” said Jada Thompson, poultry economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. With the volume of ocean-bound freight that runs through East Coast ports, the strike “could have very real consequences either in spoiled products, lost revenues, or additional, unexpected storage costs.”

James Mitchell, a livestock economist with the Division of Agriculture, said, “this could have a significant impact on beef and pork trade flows. Beef trade to Mexico, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, and Honduras, for example, is affected, accounting for approximately 12 percent of beef exports through July 2024. The Caribbean makes up 4 percent of pork exports through July 2024.”

The strike "doesn’t impact all beef and pork exports uniformly.  We export a wide variety of products to many different places. And those products are all valued differently," he said. "The dollar impact will depend on which types of products are affected, the quantities, and the value of those specific export products.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk. 

Tropical Storm Francine slows harvest, impacts quality for Arkansas crops

By Sarah Cato
U of A System Division of Agriculture

LITTLE ROCK — “It’s going to be a long fall.”

That’s how Cross County Extension Staff Chair Jenna Martin described the agricultural aftermath of Tropical Storm Francine. The storm hit Arkansas last Wednesday, dropping up to 9 inches of rain and crop-damaging gusts of up to 35 miles per hour.

The wind and rain mean that Arkansas row crop growers are facing a longer harvest and lowered quality for rice, cotton, soybeans and corn.

SPROUTED — Many soybean growers in eastern Arkansas are faced with beans sprouted in pods after extensive rainfall from Tropical Storm Francine. (Photo by Christopher Cato.)

“While we’re fairly fortunate compared to some who got a lot more wind, we have some rice and corn leaning and other fields look like you took a flat roller to them,” Martin said. “Impact on yields and quality are major concerns.”

"We received 6 to 7 inches over four days,” said Matthew Davis, Jackson County extension staff chair. “Our largest concerns are the sprouting of crops in the field, loss of quality, and poor field conditions.”

Rice

“There was not as much rice damage as I had feared when I made my way across counties in the northeast yesterday,” said Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “There are fields with heavily lodged areas, but the majority of rice is still standing.”

Lodged, or flattened rice takes longer to harvest. This, paired with the yield loss associated with sprouted rice, means rice growers are facing their already thin profit margins shrinking even more.

Hardke said parts of Poinsett, Cross and St. Francis counties seem to have taken the hardest hit.

“In some particular hotspots there is more significant lodging and rice sprouting on heads in the lodged rice,” Hardke said. “To a limited degree there is even some rice sprouting on standing rice.”

Doubling harvest time

“There’s a lot of economic impact to having downed rice,” said Nick Newberry, program associate for the Northeast Rice Research and Extension Center in Harrisburg. “Your harvest time in some situations doubles. The combine’s still rolling and you’re still burning diesel, but the acres you cut in that time is cut in half. If you even had a positive margin to start with, it’s now a break-even or a negative.”

Newberry said they were fortunate to get almost all rice at NERREC cut before the storm.

“Most of what we’ve got left is pretty much flat. It’s not very pretty,” Newberry said. “If this had just come two weeks later it would’ve been better, but that’s the risk you run in this industry.”

Cotton

“The hardest hit areas seem to be around Jackson and Poinsett counties,” said Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “In these areas it was pretty common to see plants on the ends of rows laying over or at least leaning.”

Treadway said leaning plants should straighten up with time, but for plants completely blown over, those bolls can be expected to rot. As for open cotton bolls, Treadway said most of it is still pickable.

“Of the cotton that is open, I saw a fair amount of fiber drooping out of the bolls, but not a lot on the ground, surprisingly,” he said. “We can still pick that cotton as long as it is hanging on to the bolls.”

However, harvest may be further away than initially anticipated due to field conditions after the rain.

“I expect harvest to be a little delayed now,” Treadway said. “For producers who are ready to pick, they’ll have to wait for the ground to get dry enough to get pickers out in the field. For producers who are defoliating, they’ll either have to wait for the ground to dry enough to get a ground rig across it or hire a pilot to apply defoliants. I think this is going to push everything back.”

However, Treadway said the forecast sunshine will “do us a world of good if it shows up.”

Soybeans

Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the majority of the damage came in the form of sprouted soybeans.

“I was on the phone with county agents, farmers and crop consultants from the southeast to the northeast corners of the state about soybean seed sprouting in pods,” said Ross said. “Most of these calls are in fields that were ready to harvest prior to Francine, but I had a few calls about pods that are still green having sprouted seeds.”

Fortunately, Ross said this is isolated to just a small portion of pods on the soybean plants.

“Some fields with taller plants that haven’t reached maturity have lodged to some degree,” Ross said. “These fields could have some quality issues due to matted foliage and lack of air movement.”

Ross said the main focus now is to get these fields harvested, but harvesting in wet conditions brings issues of its own.

“We need to get these fields harvested as quickly as possible to avoid additional sprouting and dockage due to moldy seeds. To do this, some fields will need to be harvested before they are dry enough to avoid rutting the fields,” Ross said. “Fields that will be rutted will cost more once they dry out to get back into shape for planting next spring. Some will stay rutted until next spring, delaying planting.”

Corn and grain sorghum

Jason Kelley, extension feed grains agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said that although corn fields fared better than expected, there was substantial lodging in some areas and grain quality is a concern.

“We’re at the tail end of harvest so the corn that was left had been mature for three to four weeks, with the stalks getting more brittle every day. Every field had some plants blown over,” he said. “Some sprouting of grain in the shuck has occurred and those plants that are laying on the ground will likely see substantial sprouting and loss.”

Kelley said fortunately 84 percent of the state’s corn acres were harvested prior to Francine according to Monday’s crop progress report.  

Although the majority of the state’s few grain sorghum acres had already been harvested, Kelley said there was substantial sprouting of the grain in heads.

“I think the full extent of the damage is still to be seen, especially in terms of grain quality. The level of discounts our growers will receive for reduced-quality grain is the big unknown right now,” Kelley said. “The forecast now looks warm and dry, so harvest will likely start up again in a few days.”

Kelley said wet field conditions and rutting of fields will cause an added expense for this crop.

Forage

There is a bright side to things, as Francine brought much needed rain for livestock and forage producers.

“Much of the state was at least abnormally dry. The rain this past weekend helped to green up fields and provide additional grazing days,” said Kenny Simon, forages instructor for the Division of Agriculture. “Some producers had already started feeding hay, which is about 45 to 60 days ahead of the normal hay feeding period.”

Simon said the rain is especially beneficial for producers that are stockpiling forages or have planted an annual forage.

To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu.

Tropical Storm Francine timing ‘couldn’t be worse’ for Arkansas crops

LITTLE ROCK — With rice ready to harvest and cotton bolls open, Tropical Storm Francine is set to hit Arkansas crops at the worst possible time.

LODGED — With rice dried down and ready to harvest, Francine could cause lodging, broken panicles and harvest delays.

“We never want to gripe about rain, but this timing couldn’t be worse,” said Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “We’ve got guys trying to get rice out, guys trying to get beans out, we’re trying to get cotton defoliated. It’s definitely not a good time for a tropical storm.”

The National Hurricane Center was forecasting Francine to intensify into a hurricane Tuesday, with landfall on Wednesday afternoon in Louisiana. Hurricane warnings were posted for the Louisiana gulf coast on Tuesday, with tropical storm warnings extending into Texas.

The storm was expected to weaken into a tropical depression by the time it reaches Arkansas on Thursday. Tuesday’s forecast cone covered the eastern half of Arkansas.

“The system is expected to continue towards the state bringing the chance for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and possibly a few tornadoes Wednesday night through Friday afternoon,” the National Weather Service at Little Rock said.

Cotton 

With cotton, Treadway’s main concerns stem from cotton plants being blown over.

“Bolls that come in close proximity with the soil are at risk for rot or hard lock,” Treadway said. “Plants that are blown over will straighten up some, but for those that get tangled up, this could take longer.”

Hard lock refers to cotton bolls that either will not open or open very little due to bacteria or fungus.

But the heavy winds aren’t the only issue. With most of Arkansas’ cotton bolls open, rain could threaten exposed cotton.

“If we have a lot of rain on open bolls, the cotton will fall out of the boll. Wet cotton almost looks like it’s dripping off the plant,” Treadway said. “It can dry, but it lowers the cotton quality and makes it harder to pick.”

With cotton harvest around the corner, Treadway said the rain could also keep farmers out of the field when they were set to apply harvest aids, delaying harvest and lowering quality.

Rice

As for rice, it will be race to Wednesday night for most growers, especially those in the Delta region.

“The entire Delta, top to bottom is set to be on the western side of the eye, which is where we see the most rain,” said Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “From a rainfall standpoint, the bulk of the concern is Wednesday night going into Thursday.”

With Arkansas rice on pace for its earliest crop since 2010, Hardke said the dry, mature plants are at their most vulnerable state right now.

“This is the exact kind of storm that is worst for rice that has been drained and is ready to harvest,” Hardke said. “We don’t have a lot of stalk integrity left. It’s a great thing we took advantage of that early planting window, we did the right thing, but as it goes we planted quicker than we can harvest, creating a bad recipe for those acres that are left.”

According to Monday’s Crop Progress Report, 56% of rice in Arkansas has been harvested, leaving almost half of the state’s crop still out in the field. For rice growers in the Delta, it will be a race to harvest what acres they can before Wednesday night.

“We’ll be pushing it on the early side of harvest for some fields,” Hardke said. “It’ really a game of prioritizing what needs to be harvested first.”

Hardke said high winds and excessive rain could cause lodging, broken panicles and delayed harvest. All coming at peak harvest season for this year’s rice crop.

“Two weeks ago, when plants were greener and not as dry, I wouldn’t have been as worried. Two weeks from now wouldn’t have been so bad,” Hardke said. “But with where our rice is now, I’m just hoping we get lucky and dodge most of it.”

To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu.

NASS forecasts new record soybean yield for Arkansas

By Mary Hightower 
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture  

LITTLE ROCK — Arkansas is on track to break its year-old record for soybeans, as the National Agricultural Statistics Service on Monday forecast a statewide 57-bushel-per-acre average yield, up three bushels per acre from last year. 

NASS, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, forecast Arkansas soybean production at 172 million bushels, up 8 percent from last year. Harvested acreage is expected to be 70,000 acres higher than last year at 3.02 million from 3.05 million acres planted.

Soybeans are on track for a record state average yield, according to NASS.  (Flickr Image)

“I was very surprised of the projected new state record yield of 57 bushels per acre for 2024,” said Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.  

“With how early a majority of the soybean crop was planted this year, I was anticipating yields similar to slightly below the 54 bushels per acre state average soybean yield seen in 2023,” he  said. “I'm hoping the best for this soybean crop, because every soybean farmer is going to need every bushel that can combine with how much the soybean prices have dropped over if the last 12 months.”  

Ross said Arkansas growers had “almost ideal weather conditions from planting to harvest in 2023. We had another good, early start for 2024, but July was hotter and drier than 2023 and August is looking like it's going to be hot and dry as well. 

“The last time we had a significant yield bump between two years was 2016-2017. The average state yield was 47 bushels per acre in 2016 and 51 bushels per acre in 2017,” he said “Again, the weather conditions in 2017 were much improved from those seen in 2016.”  

CORN — Corn production was forecast at 90.2 million bushels, down 41 percent from last year. However, yield is expected to average 186 bushels per acre, up three bushels from last year. NASS revised the planted acres downward by 120,000 acres to 500,000. Harvested acres were also expected to drop from 600,000 to 485,000. 

“Yields look to be really good, with an estimated 186 bushels per acre state average yield,” said Jason Kelley, extension wheat and feed grains agronomist. “This is not a record but getting close.  

“Overall, it was a great growing season for northeastern Arkansas, which got planted early and never looked back,” Kelley said. “Points further south had a more difficult planting season due to too much rain at planting for some producers, but statewide we have had some timely rains which has cut down on irrigation costs this year. Harvest has started on a limited amount of acres and will continue to increase as we get later into August. 

COTTON — Cotton production was expected to rise by 21 percent to 1.65 million bales, which is 288,000 bales higher than last year. Yields are expected to be 57 pounds per acre lower than last year, forecast at 1,238 pounds of lint. Harvested acres were expected to be up 135,000 acres from last year to 640,000. 

Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist, said that the new acreage number, while a decrease from NASS’s initial estimate, “is still quite an increase from our acreage last year. 

“I know of several locations that had to abandon cotton planting due to extremely wet conditions in southern Arkansas, so the decrease from the initial estimate is not a huge surprise,” he said. “The increase in total production is to be expected with the major increase in acres.” 

Treadway said that the crop has held up despite “the roller coaster season we’ve had.  

“We started extremely wet, then we got extremely hot and dry, followed by more cool and wet conditions, and it seems like we are again settling into hot and dry for the coming several days,” he said. “Cotton is still trading pretty low at somewhere from 68-70 cents, so we need to get this crop to the finish line in the best shape possible to aid producers' bottom lines in a tough market.” 

PEANUTS — The forecast for peanuts is mixed, with production expected to be 18 percent higher than last year to 233 million pounds. However, yield is forecast to be down 500 pounds per acre from last year to 5,300 pounds. The forecast for harvested acreage has been revised upward to 44,000 acres from 34,000. 

RICE — Seems like everything is up for rice in the August forecast.  Production is forecast at 109 million hundredweight, up 2 percent from last year. The yield for all rice is forecast at 7,600 pounds per acre, up 50 pounds from last year. The forecast for harvested acres rose 30,000 acres to 1.43 million acres. 

Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said Monday’s report wasn’t surprising.   

“I expected acreage projections to increase slightly compared to the June report,” he said. “The yield number — at slightly higher than last year –- was unexpected but is still really within the range of my projection.  

“It’s a very good yield but not a record,” Hardke said. “The question is whether our significant amount of early planting counteracts some of the likely yield drags from in-season management difficulties due to weather.” 

HAY — NASS has forecast Arkansas’ hay production to be 2.68 million tons, up 22 percent from last year. The yield is forecast to average 2.20 tons per acre, up 0.30 tons from last year. Producers expect to harvest 1.22 million acres of hay, excluding alfalfa, up 60,000 acres from 2023. 

To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu.  

Cotton, soybeans are up, corn tumbles, seed shortage moves rice toward medium grain

By Mary Hightower
U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture

LITTLE ROCK — The June “Acreage” report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed cotton with its highest acreage in more than a decade and soybeans on the rise, while corn tumbled and rice shuffled between long and medium grain acres in Arkansas.

Scot Stiles: “June Acreage is more or less a reality check for the March ‘Planting Intentions’ report.” (U of A System Division of Agriculture photo by Kerry Rodtnick) 

Friday’s report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, proved a hot property, with users crashing the servers shortly after its 11 a.m. CDT release.

Graph showing information about Arkansas crops from the June 28, 2024, Acreage report from NASS. (U of A System Division of Agriculture image by Scott Stiles)

“June Acreage is more or less a reality check for the March ‘Planting Intentions’ report,” said Scott Stiles, extension agricultural economics program associate for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

Principle crops planted, acreage down 0.8 percent to 7.156 million acres in Arkansas; total planted in US is 315 billion acres, down 1.4 percent from previous year, NASS said.

CORN

Corn acres dropped 27.1 percent to 620,000 acres, unchanged from the March planting intentions.

“Corn prices have been on downward slide for much of the past year,” Stiles said. “Futures prices for new crop corn were about 20 percent below the previous year when NASS surveyed growers in early March.” 

Jason Kelley, extension wheat and feed grains agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said he wasn’t surprised by the Acreage report.

“Lower grain prices, combined with less-than-ideal planting conditions for some led to the drop in Arkansas acres,” he said. “The spring was too wet, especially in the southern half of the state.

“Northeast Arkansas overall had better planting conditions than the rest of the state, with dry weather in late March and early April,” Kelley said.

COTTON

Cotton acres were up 31.4 percent to 670,000 acres in Arkansas, while total U.S. acres were also up 14.1 percent.

“The huge surprise in today’s report was NASS’ cotton acreage number,” Stiles said. “In March, growers indicated they would increase acres by a modest 30,000 acres to 540,000.”

However, “in June, acres are expected to be 670,000; up 160,000 from last year,” Stiles said. “This would be the highest cotton acreage for the state since 2011, which saw 680,000 acres that year. 

He said that while there were solid indications we have 610,000 to 620,000 acres in the state, “the 670,000-acre print is surprisingly high.

“Cotton prices started a nosedive in early April, losing about 13 cents by mid-June. Prices fell from the low 80 cent level to 70 cents,” Stiles said, “But, cotton yields in the state continue to climb and growers exited 2023 with record yields.  And the crop insurance price of 82 cents this year may have played a role in adding acres.  There was some shifting from corn to cotton going on as well.” 

“In terms of cotton we're in good shape,” said Zachary Treadway, extension cotton and peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture. “Some guys are in the first week of bloom and some are into the second week of bloom, but what’s really important right now is water.

“It’s getting hot and dry and want to keep putting moisture on the crop so we’re not stressing it,” he said.

PEANUTS

“Peanuts remained the same, which is what I was expecting based on what growers were saying,” Treadway said.

NASS pinned peanuts at 35,000 acres, same as in 2023.

“The peanut crop is in pretty good shape,” Treadway said. “We had some growers that had to go back and replant after extensive rainfall. Some growers are reporting their crop pegging.”

In pegging, the embryonic peanut grows downward into the soil.

RICE

Overall, total rice acres were down 15,000 acres from last year in NASS' findings to 1.42 million acres, compared to just under 1.44 million acres in 2023.

Stiles said he was a little surprised by the 40,000-acre decline in long-grain rice acres from March.

“The June survey results are a little puzzling considering the planting progress this year and the rice market rally that kicked off in early April,” he said.

“Generally, in years when planting progresses at a faster than average pace, we tend to see a higher acreage number in June,” Stiles said. “USDA did increase medium grain acres by 10,000 above their March number.”

Jarrod Hardke, rice extension agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said he too was a little  surprised by the dip, but said it was within his range of expectations between 1.4 million and 1.5 million acres.

A shortage of long-grain seed shortage played into the shuffling of acres over to medium grain, he said.

“One of the hardest things to gauge every year is the expected long and medium grain acreage, and then with a seed shortage out of the gate, that changed the mix. And it got very, very weird,” he said.

There were also some missed planting opportunities during good weather windows as growers unable to get the seed they wanted, scrambled to find varieties to plant.

SOYBEANS

NASS lowered Arkansas soybean acres by 50,000 from the March intentions to 3.05 million, however that was still up 2.3 percent from 2023. U.S. total was up 3 percent to 86.1 billion acres.

“This is still an increase of 2 percent or 70,000 acres over last year,” Stiles said. “Considering the sharp drop in corn acres, some resulting increase in soybeans is not a surprise. 

“Similar to corn, soybean prices have trended lower over the past year as well,” he said. “As planting kicked off in the state, soybean prices were about 13 to 14 percent lower compared to the prior year.  November ‘24 soybeans settled at $11.04 today.  A year ago the November contract traded at $12.66, right ahead of a summer rally that carried prices above $14 last July. A very bearish feel to the soybean and corn markets this year.”

Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist, said “the estimates were in line with what I was expecting. We had another really good start with early plantings similar to the 2023 season. 

“This year’s soybean crop ranges from early planted fields beginning to fill pods to fields that were planted within the last two days,” he said on Sunday. “With the drop in soybean prices compared to last year, I’m getting a few more calls with farmers and consultants asking about different inputs preserving or increasing soybean yields.”

WINTER WHEAT

Winter wheat acres declined 39.1 percent from 2024 to 140,000 acres. That followed the larger national trend with U.S. winter wheat falling down 7.9 percent to 33.8 billion acres.

Kelley said the decline was likely due to “lower prices for grain and lower relative profitability compared to other crops.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk. 

Arkansas planned acreage falls slightly overall; corn and wheat see deepest cuts

By Ryan McGeeney
U of A System Division of Agriculture

LITTLE ROCK — While overall intended crop acreage fell just 2.5 percent in Arkansas in 2024 to about 7 million acres, some crops saw significant shifts in acreage, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report released Thursday.

SHIFTING ACRES — The 2024 Prospective Plantings Report, compiled by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, found that acreage for most of the country’s principal row crops will likely only shift a few percentage points one way or the other this year. The report is based on self-reported planting intentions from growers across the United States. Nationally, projected crop acreage fell about 2 percent in 2024, to about 313.3 million acres. (Graphic courtesy USDA.)

The 2024 Prospective Plantings Report, compiled by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, found that acreage for most of the country’s principal row crops will likely only shift a few percentage points one way or the other this year. The report is based on self-reported planting intentions from growers across the United States. Nationally, projected crop acreage fell about 2 percent in 2024, to about 313.3 million acres.

Arkansas corn and wheat acreage take a nosedive

Arkansas intended corn acreage fell sharply, down 27 percent, from 850,000 acres to 620,000 acres. Wheat acreage also fell significantly in the state, down 41 percent from 230,000 acres to 135,000 acres. Nationally, corn acreage fell 5 percent to about 90 million acres, while producers said they planned to plant nearly 47.5 million acres of wheat, about 96 percent of what was planted in 2023.

Jason Kelley, extension wheat and feed grains agronomist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said that the significant drop in corn acreage was no surprise, given that the state was coming off a near-record-high year for acreage.

“Our acreage goes up and down every year,” Kelley said. “Last year, 2023, was the second-highest acreage we’d had since the early 1950s.”

He said profitability was likely the main driver for growers moving away from corn throughout the region.

“It looks like the whole Southeast was off quite a bit — 15 to 27 percent,” Kelley said. “The Mid-South was down 20-27 percent. So, it looks like most of our surrounding states had the same mindset.”

Similarly, wheat acreage was down in the East, falling in all but seven states.

Hunter Biram, extension agricultural economist for the Division of Agriculture, also said the drop in Arkansas corn acres, paired with a rise in soybean acres, was expected.

“Two factors that typically influence this shift are crop rotations and expected margins, with expected margins likely the driving force behind any acreage shifts beyond normal,” Biram said. “Last year, corn margins were far more favorable compared to soybeans, and that showed up in not only the Prospective Plantings report but also in the Crop Acreage Report released last June.

Over the past 20 years, soybean and corn acreage have both grown in the United States, with corn typically leading by as much as 50 percent some years. Over that span, however, soybean acreage has tightened the gap, actually tying the national acreage in 2017 at about 90 million acres each.

“This year, soybean margins appear more favorable, albeit not by much compared to corn,” Biram said. “Last year, the favorable margins were mostly driven by a relatively high corn-to-soybean price ratio, meaning corn prices were much higher relative to soybean prices. This year, there isn’t a crop price to get too excited about, but prices for key fertilizers have fallen to levels similar to the period prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Projected Arkansas hay harvests appear to be keeping pace with the previous year, with growers expecting to harvest about 1.15 million acres, 99 percent of 2023’s total.

Arkansas long grain rice surges, medium grain falls back

Arkansas intended rice acreage shifted only slightly, growing 1 percent over 2023 acreage to 1.45 million acres. However, grower sentiment appeared bullish on long grain rice, jumping 11 percent from 2023 acreage to a projected 1.36 million acres, while pulling back on medium grain, falling by 58 percent to just 90,000 acres.

Nationally, planned rice acreage grew 1 percent to more than 2.93 million acres.

Jarrod Hardke, extension rice agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said the report’s outlook for rice was in line with spring estimates.

“Long grain rice appears to be a profitable option, but seed supply issues are hindering further increases in acres,” Hardke said. “Medium grain is in lower demand for this year with few contracts or pricing premiums available in the wake of high acres and production last year.”

Biram added that the ambiguity of global markets is likely affecting acreage decisions.

“Among many drivers in rice acreage, one could be the possibility that India reverses their export ban on non-basmati rice, which was put in place in July 2023,” Biram said. “While that proved to be favorable for rice prices in the short run, with some cash prices reported at over $8 a bushel in the post-harvest window of January and February, the new crop futures contracts for rice are already indicating prices could land around $6.75 per bushel or lower. This is because when export supply is reduced in the global market, prices increases.

“Conversely, when export supply increases due to a lift on an export ban, for example, prices fall,” he said. “Perhaps producers were able to lock in price guarantees through area crop insurance, such as Enhanced Coverage Option or Margin Protection, trying to capture the tail end of a months-long price rally driven by the export ban. Otherwise, I suspect crop rotations and less-favorable corn margins are driving the increase in long grain rice acres.”

Arkansas soybeans rise steadily

Arkansas soybean acreage grew slightly, rising 4 percent over 2023 to 3,100 acres. This puts the state’s growers slightly ahead of the national soybean acreage outlook, which rose 3 percent to about 86.5 million acres.

Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said it was no surprise to see Arkansas soybeans return to the “plus side” of 3 million acres.

“Historically, we’ve been above 3 million acres for the last several years, other than 2018-2019,” Ross said. “That’s when we had a lot of rainfall — the fall of 2018 and progressing into 2019. We had a lot of flooding issues, and 2019 was the lowest soybean acreage we’ve had since 1960.

“I think all of it points to China,” Ross said of the high acreage numbers. “China is our No. 1 destination for soybean exports. As their population increases, the demand for soybeans increases.”

He said much of 2023’s outstanding soybean yield was due to growers taking advantage of the early planting window, and that he foresees a similar fortune this year.

“Beans have been planted for almost a solid month in Arkansas,” Ross said. “Some of them look good, some not so good, mainly due to cooler weather. We had pretty much the earliest start ever last year, and we had record yields. I think some guys proved that when your beans are planted earlier, the yield potential is a lot better than delayed planting.

“Over the next seven days or so, it looks to be warm and dry, so I think there’s going to be a lot of land prep, and maybe some more beans planted,” Ross said Thursday. “I’m anticipating another good year.”

Peanuts hold, cotton grows

Arkansas producers appear to be holding steady, again planning to plant 35,000 acres of the legume, the same acreage as 2023.

Travis Faske, extension plant pathologist and acting peanut agronomist for the Division of Agriculture, said that peanut acreage throughout the state will likely be higher than the reported intentions.

“I still think we will be a few thousand acres north of 35,000 acres by the end of planting season, as the two primary peanut buying points in the state have indicated an increase in acreage,” Faske said.

Planned Arkansas cotton acreage grew 6 percent over 2023 numbers to 540,000 acres. This exceeded the national outlook, which grew 4 percent to more than 10.6 million planned acres.

“I suspect the reason cotton acreage increased by 6 percent is because cotton lint prices are more favorable compared to last year, but nothing like what we saw in 2021-2022,” Biram said.

“While crop rotations can explain most of the corn-soybean rotation, cotton acreage can likely be explained by the fact that a cotton farmer is going to farm cotton regardless of the price, due to the lack of versatility in equipment used to produce cotton,” he said. “The cotton lint price may shift acreage, but the degree of that shift will depend on what the cotton lint price is.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk. 

U.S. corn, cotton and soybean production down in 2022

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

Production for corn, cotton and soybeans declined from last year, according to the 2022 Crop Production Annual Summary released by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Drought ravaged nearly every state during the year and it had impacts on harvested acres and yields.

U.S. corn growers produced 13.7 billion bushels, down 9% from 2021. Corn yield in the United States is estimated at 173.3 bushels per acre, 3.4 bushels below the 2021 record high yield of 176.7 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain, at 79.2 million acres, is down 7% from 2021.

Soybean production for 2022 totaled 4.28 billion bushels, down 4% from 2021. The average soybean yield is estimated at 49.5 bushels per acre, 2.2 bushels below 2021, and 0.7 bushel below the Nov. 1 forecast.

https://talkbusiness.net/2023/01/u-s-corn-cotton-and-soybean-production-down-in-2022/

Gus Wilson/UA System Division Of Agriculture

Corn planting begins in this photo from Feb. 24, 2012, in a field near Eudora in Chicot County, Ark.

U.S. cotton farmers projected to harvest fewest acres since Reconstruction due to drought

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

If the newest harvest projections hold, U.S. farmers will harvest the least number of cotton acres in over 150 years. A crippling drought across many parts of the South and West is causing farmers to abandon fields at a record rate, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“USDA projected this year’s harvested acres at 7.13 million,” said Scott Stiles, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “That would be the lowest since 1868.”

Stiles said the USDA’s latest report projected that about 43% of U.S. planted cotton acres are expected to be abandoned this year, “largely due to the extreme drought conditions in the southwest region, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.”

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/08/u-s-cotton-farmers-projected-to-harvest-fewest-acres-since-reconstruction-due-to-drought/

Arkansas Remains Largest Rice Producing State

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

Arkansas is easily the top rice producing state and it’s no surprise it leads the nation in rice exports, according to the State Agricultural Trade database released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Rice exports accounted for $722 million of the state’s total of $3.1 billion in agricultural exports, the report stated. Scott Stiles, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture said that of the $3.1 billion 78%, or $2.4 billion, was attributed to plant products. The report covers the 2019 calendar year.

According to the report, following are the commodities ranked by their respective contribution to the total export value.
• Rice — $722 million
• Soybeans — $679.3 million
• Cotton — $427.3 million
• Other feed grains: barley, oats, sorghum — $73.2 million
• Corn — $71.4 million

https://talkbusiness.net/2021/07/arkansas-remains-largest-rice-producing-state/