Drought, delay of Farm Bill lead agri headlines in 2023

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

Drought, the federal Farm Bill, foreign ownership of agriculture land and the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) dominated agriculture headlines in Northeast Arkansas during the 2023 growing season.

For a second consecutive year, severe, extreme and exceptional drought afflicted many areas along the Mississippi River with more than 65 percent of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas having some form of drought in September.

Drought was a double-edged sword for Arkansas growers. On the plus side, drought helped suppress crop diseases and speed harvesting. On the downside, the water-starved Mississippi River dropped to its lowest level ever at Memphis on Oct. 17, to minus 12.04 feet. Recent rains along its length in early December prompted a forecast rise to more than 3 feet by Dec. 18, followed by another drop into the negative numbers.

Drought, delay of Farm Bill lead agri headlines in 2023

YEAREND: As drought tightened cattle production, 2023 markets soared

LITTLE ROCK — Cattle market prices are as high as they’ve been in a decade. That’s good news for producers who have been able to maintain their herds in recent years, but a missed opportunity for those who weren’t.

HIGH DOLLAR — “It was an exciting year in terms of markets for cattle,” said the Division of Agriculture's James Mitchell said. “Cattle prices leading up to the fall were as high as we’ve seen them in 10 years — that had lots of people excited about the future. On the production side, it was exciting depending on who you asked.” (Image courtesy USDA.) 

Throughout most of the year, both futures and cash markets for steers, calves and more marked a vast improvement over 2022. By the last week of November, prices for medium and large No. 1 steer calves (weighing 500 to 600 pounds) were above $270 per hundredweight, more than $80 per hundredweight higher than the same time in 2022 and more than $100 higher than the average from 2017-2021.

James Mitchell, assistant professor and extension economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said that the benefits of high prices largely fell to those with access to good grazing and forage.

“It was an exciting year in terms of markets for cattle,” Mitchell said. “Cattle prices leading up to the fall were as high as we’ve seen them in 10 years — that had lots of people excited about the future. On the production side, it was exciting depending on who you asked.” 

A wide swath of droughty conditions has made its way down the middle of the United States over the last several years — affecting first the Northern Plains states such as Montana and Idaho in 2021-2022, then the Southern Plains of Kansas and Texas and finally the Southeast in 2023.

“About three-quarters of Arkansas was heavily affected,” Mitchell said. “The southeastern United States has been hit incredibly hard by drought. All of our neighbors to the east — Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Florida — are in a pretty tough spot, still very much in a drought. So for them, there’s not much they can do with these high prices, because they don’t have any grass or forage. There was nothing they could really do this winter, in terms of retaining calves.

“So you’ve got significant portions of cattle-producing states suffering through drought, forcing them to shrink or liquidate their herds because of a lack of forage,” he said. “When you have three consecutive years of that, you’re going to have a tightening of beef cow availability, which means you’ve got fewer calves being born each year. So you have tighter and tighter supplies, which of course leads to higher prices — assuming demand holds steady.”

In January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that the total U.S. beef cattle inventory was at its lowest since 1962, declining more than 3 percent from the previous year to 28.9 million head. The inventory reported an entire cattle inventory of 89.3 million. Mitchell said he believes the forthcoming USDA Cattle Inventory report, expected in January 2024, will reflect a fourth consecutive year of contracting cattle supply in the United States.

Of course, there’s almost nothing that can’t price itself out of the market. At a certain point, Mitchell said, consumer resiliency will give way to more competitive pricing for — in this case — other animal proteins, such as poultry, pork and fish.

“People consume less of something when it gets more expensive — it’s just a law of economics,” he said.

Mitchell said that rebuilding the country’s beef cattle inventory will be a multi-year process — one that can’t really even begin under the persistence of drought.

“Pastures are going to have to recover before we see any discussion of expanding cattle numbers,” he said. “Even if that does occur, it’s going to take a couple of years for that expansion to be noticed. We don’t have the cows; it’s going to take a year to develop heifers, another year for them to give us calves, and so on. So we’re looking at a few more years of declining cattle numbers.

“An important thing that’s different from 2014-2015, is that it’s going to be more expensive to buy back in and expand herds,” Mitchell said. “Interest rates are higher than they were 10 years ago. We expanded the herds very rapidly in 2014, we did that with low interest rates — so capital was inexpensive. That should lead to more careful calculation in terms of how we decide to expand herds.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.

Global supply, seasonal shift lead to lower cattle market prices

By Ryan McGeeney
U of A System Division of Agriculture 

LITTLE ROCK — After an impressively bullish first half of the year, market prices for beef cattle have fallen in recent months, owing in part to reports reflecting an increased supply.

SEASONAL SHIFT — After an impressively bullish first half of the year, market prices for beef cattle have fallen in recent months, owing in part to reports reflecting an increased supply. (Graphic courtesy CME.)

Prices for the January 2024 CME© feeder cattle contract, for example, fell from a high of $268 per hundredweight in mid-September to $219 per hundredweight by the end of November, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. 

James Mitchell, extension economist and assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said the downturn in the markets is essentially due to two factors.

“Through the first eight months of this year, cattle markets trended higher,” Mitchell said. “We’ve seen really high prices throughout the year. Those prices were moving upward on what was mostly bullish information about cattle inventories and the size of our beef cow herd.”

Mitchell said that seasonality and a few recent reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture have led to declines in futures and cash markets for cattle.

“The last two months, those prices have started to soften,” he said. Futures market prices are down significantly, Mitchell said, while local cash markets for calves have fallen less.

While falling market prices at the end of a calendar year is typical seasonal behavior for U.S. cattle markets, as cow-calf operators sell off calves in the fall, Mitchell said the decline also reflected industry reaction to two recent reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The first was the USDA Cattle on Feed Report in September, when indicated larger-then-expected cattle placement in feed lots, Mitchell said.

“When you have larger-than-expected supplies, you will see downward pressure on cattle prices,” he said.

The second report was the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, commonly referred to as WASDE, which increased projected global beef production.

“If you see an increase of expected beef supplies in the future, that’s also a bearish piece of news about the expected value of cattle,” Mitchell said.

He said that current market activity indicates an exaggeration of the typical seasonal market trend.

“As you see prices come down more in the near-term on larger supplies, that tells me that we have a lot of producers that are just selling calves now, as opposed to retaining them, feeding them through the winter and selling them in March or April, coming off of a stocker operation,” he said. “Or it might just be that producers saw high prices and wanted to take advantage of that. Another part of that could be drought, it could be expensive feed; all those things could potentially contribute to that decision.

“I don’t think it’s a sign that anything’s broken, or that anything is inherently wrong with our cattle markets,” Mitchell said. “That’s just how they work: they’re seasonal, and they react to information.”

Drought and cattle
Much of the Southeast was affected by droughty conditions throughout the year. Mitchell said that with the relief of rain Arkansas received in October, the state’s producers were at least in better situations than those of producers in many neighboring states.

“From talking to colleagues in across the Southeast, I can tell you that they are as dry as they’ve been in a very long time,” he said. “So you have a lot of producers in that part of the country selling cattle because they can’t do anything with them. So that potentially makes it cheaper for Arkansas stocker operations to buy them.”

Mitchell said that current market trends are the perfect reminder of the benefits of crop insurance.

“We were in a very, very bullish market up to this point,” he said. “Prices just looked like they were going to continue to go up and up. It only took a couple of reports and some seasonal tendencies for those prices to decline. That’s why we have price risk management. It doesn’t matter if prices are trending down or up, you should consider PRM as part of your broader business plan. This is the kind of situation those tools are designed to protect you against.”

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on X and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on X at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on X at @AgInArk.

Keep lawns green in 2024 with proper fall preparation

By Sarah Cato
U of A System Division of Agriculture

LITTLE ROCK – Early freezes and long-term drought in 2022 had lasting effects on this year’s lawns. However, much of this heartache can be avoided in 2024 with proper fall preparation.

GRASS FACTS —  Assistant professor Wendell Hutchens shares opening remarks to kick off the 2023 Arkansas Turfgrass Field Day. (Division of Agriculture photo.)

Wendell Hutchens, assistant professor of turfgrass science for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said much of the lawncare woes in 2023 were due to an early cold snap at the end of December 2022, before zoysiagrass and bermudagrass were dormant.

“This past year was an absolute doozy for warm-season grasses,” Hutchens said. “We saw widespread winterkill across Arkansas in bermudagrass and zoysiagrass. A lot of lawns were not fully dormant when we got that cold spell around December 22 and 23.”

This year, Hutchens recommends taking a few steps early to prepare lawns for dormancy. Proper irrigation and higher mowing heights are crucial.

“A big issue we saw last year was depleted root systems due to drought. This left them very susceptible to winterkill. So proper irrigation going into fall dormancy is key,” Hutchens said.

“We want to give the plant the best possible chance, so you can also raise your mowing heights now. If you’re mowing at 2 inches, bump it up to 3 inches.”

Additionally, stopping fertilizer applications in October will help plants go dormant for the cold winter temperatures. Hutchens recommends stopping fertilizer before Oct. 1 for zoysiagrass and before Oct. 15 for bermudagrass. Pre-emergence herbicides for winter annual weeds are okay, but proceed with caution, especially in recently re-sodded areas.

Hutchens’ take home message for lawn care in 2024: buckle up.

“The best we can do is hope for a mild winter, but manage expectations for next spring,” he said. “Areas that were damaged from winterkill this past year are highly susceptible to reoccurring damage this year. Raise those mowing heights, get that grass up to 2.5 or 3 inches and keep it properly irrigated.”

Find resources on lawn and turf care at uaex.uada.edu/yard-garden/lawns.

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk.

LABOR DAY: Fall foliage may fizzle

By Mary Hightower
U of A System Division of Agriculture 

HOPE, Ark. — Thanks to a string of dry days with highs in the 100s, Arkansas’ fall foliage display may fizzle this year.

“It’s going to be a pretty bad fall across the state,” said Vic Ford, a forester who is head of agriculture and natural resources for the Cooperative Extension Service. “A lot of trees are already turning brown.

Drought is likely to put a damper on fall foliage color in 2023, says Vic Ford, forester and administrator at the Cooperative Extension Service. (U of A System Division of Agriuculture photo by Mary Hightower)

“There’s a lot of drought stress going around,” he said. When drought hits, one of the tree’s survival mechanisms is to cut sap flow to its leaves, preventing moisture from evaporating from the leaves, which leads to browning and early leaf fall.

“Leaf color change of the type we like to see in fall is driven by day length and temperature,” Ford said. “The shorter day encourages the green chlorophyll to break down, revealing the yellows and reds. Cooler temperatures allow the non-green colors in the leaf to develop more fully.”

The Drought Center map for Arkansas showed areas of abnormal dryness in eastern Arkansas along the Missouri border, some patches in southwest Arkansas, but a broad swath of dryness north of the Arkansas River extending from the Mississippi River as far west as Faulkner and Pulaski counties. Five counties have areas of severe drought including all of Lee County, and parts of St. Francis, Woodruff, Monroe and Phillips counties.

The dryness was also prompting counties to impose burn bans across the state as the wildfire danger increased across most of the state.

“In areas where there might be more moisture, you may get some color, such as on northern slopes,” he said.

If the dry spell is upended, the chances for color might improve slightly.

“Any moisture in the next couple of weeks could produce color in places that are marginal,” Ford said.

Speaking from Hope, he said that “elms are just turning totally brown and the privet has wilted completely.”

La Niña gives way to El Niño
While cooler temperatures were in the forecast, the National Weather Service at Little Rock was not expecting abundant rain.

“Looking ahead, La Niña has faded, with a transition to a moderate to strong El Niño in the coming months,” the weather service said. “As we head through the remainder of summer/early fall long-term data is showing largely below normal precipitation across Arkansas.

“In addition to a lack of thunderstorms, there could be extreme heat at times,” the weather service said. “Given the scenario, and if there is no rain by way of a tropical system, drought is a growing concern in the short term. We will continue monitoring the situation.”

The Cooperative Extension Service is the land grant outreach arm of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk.

Dry weather patterns leave pastures thirsty; ranchers worried

By Mary Hightower
U of A System Division of Agriculture

NORTH LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Arkansas livestock producers may be getting a little worried as their forage and hay pastures turn thirsty and rainfall is more random and scattered.

While Arkansas saw a very wet April, the May 30 Drought Center map showed nearly 42 percent of the state as being abnormally dry.

Justin Condry, meteorologist for the National Weather Service at Little Rock, said Monday that an emerging El Niño will mean the return of a more typical summer weather pattern for Arkansas.

“We’re going to see a lot of pop-up showers in the afternoon,” he said. “It’s that kind of thing where your neighbor down the road could pick something that you may not.”

A pattern of dry weather has set in, causing ranchers concern about their hay meadows and pastures. File photos.

Condry said the summer outlook from the Climate Prediction Center covering June, July and August projects “slightly above-average temperatures and slightly above-average rainfall.”

However, Condry cautioned that the three-month outlook is generalized and that not everyone will see above-average rainfall through the summer.

Smaller hay cuttings

Cody Burkham, executive vice president of the Arkansas Cattlemen’s Association, said he hasn’t heard of anyone resorting to hay for forage yet, he reports some cuttings in north central Arkansas are a “quarter to a third below average.”

The National Agricultural Statistics Service report on Monday showed 13 percent of non-alfafa hay in poor condition, with 11 percent of pastures in poor or very poor condition.

“We are becoming very concerned about the dry conditions in Van Buren County,” Danny Griffin, county extension staff chair for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said Monday. “Most producers who fertilized early have made an average hay crop, but many are concerned about making a second harvest or having to feed the first due to lack of rain on pastures.

“Our soils dry out quickly,” Griffin said. “The old timers used to say that ‘we are always two weeks from a drought at any time’.”

Prussic acid

The drought brings an additional grazing concern, he said.

“I have been on the phone this morning with a producer concerned about grazing sorghum-sudangrass that he planted and fertilized,” Griffin said. “It can accumulate nitrates and prussic acid in drought conditions and become toxic to grazing animals.”

In Jackson County, which includes parts of the eastern Ozarks, “Hills are drying up fast from what I saw last week,” said Matthew Davis, Jackson County extension staff chair. “Many water holes are dry and any non-diverse forage areas are struggling. The higher up on the Ozarks you go the worse it is because of the shallow soil.”

Davis also said that “grazing rotations are being impacted by lack of water in places, and non-irrigated hay ground won’t be cut anytime soon because grass isn’t growing off.”

Back to forage management basics

Maggie Justice, assistant professor and extension beef cattle specialist, said now is not the time to forget basic forage management.

Water — “Make sure your animals have access to good clean water. Make sure to monitor natural water sources more closely during drier times,” she said.

Monitor your pastures — “Be more aware of toxic plants in your pastures,” Justice said. “Cattle grazing short pastures are more likely to consume toxic plants.”

Justice also said producers shouldn’t let cattle graze too long on short pastures, since it will make it more difficult for grass to recover.

“Let the grass grow back before grazing,” she said. “Concentrate cattle in a ‘sacrifice’ area if needed. Close the gates and give your remaining forage a chance.”

“Start thinking about long-term management decisions such as animals that might need to be culled,” Justice said. “Consider culling open cows, old and low producers in the herd. This will provide more feed for the younger and more productive cows.”

“If you have to start feeding hay due to lack of forage — don’t waste the hay!” she said. “Use recommended methods for properly feeding hay such as feeders that minimize waste, unrolling hay, and limiting the time cows have access to hay each day if needed.”

Find information on prussic acid and cattle and managing cattle in drought online and at your county Cooperative Extension Service office.

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk.

Division of Ag’s Fields to moderate March 17 panel discussion for water lecture

By the U of A System Division of Agriculture

LITTLE ROCK — Deacue Fields, vice president-agriculture for the University of Arkansas System, will serve as moderator March 17 for a Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lecture Series event focused on water.

Fields will moderate a panel discussion for “Securing Water & Food in a Changing World,” a lecture to be delivered by Peter G. McCornick, executive director of the Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute at the University of Nebraska. The lecture will be held at the Winthrop Rockefeller Institute’s Petit Jean Mountain campus near Morrilton and begins at 9 a.m.

Fields will discuss innovative solutions for water use in the state. Lunch, provided by the institute, will be available following the program. Registration is required; sign up at rockefellerinstitute.org/water.

Division of Agriculture head Deacue Fields will moderate a discussion that's part of a Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lecture Series talk on water. File photo taken Feb. 23, 2023.(U of A System Division of Agriculture photo by Mary Hightower)

“With drought and declining aquifers, we cannot take water for granted,” Fields said. “Our researchers and educators have worked hard to find ways to help farmers and others preserve Arkansas’ water quality and quantity.”

The series also includes a March 13, event at the University of Arkansas-Little Rock. Award-winning journalist Kim Zetter will speak on “Stuxnet and Beyond: The Age of Digital Warfare and the Future of our Cities.” The lecture is set for 4:30 p.m.

Both Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lecture Series events are free and open to the public. The Winthrop Rockefeller Distinguished Lectures Series is a program established in 1972 and endowed by friends of Governor Winthrop Rockefeller with the purpose of stimulating public discussion, intellectual debate, and cultural advancement.

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk.

Mitchell: We haven’t reached the bottom yet in U.S. cattle inventories

By Mary Hightower
U of A System Division of Agriculture

HEBER SPRINGS, Ark. — The decline in the cattle inventory in the United States probably hasn’t hit the bottom yet, said James Mitchell, extension livestock economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.

Mitchell was among the presenters last Friday at the Little Red River Beef Cattle Conference at the Cleburne County Livestock Auction.

Extension ag economist James Mitchell talks markets at the Little Red River Beef cattle conference in Heber Springs, Arkansas, on Feb. 17, 2023. (U of A System Division of Agriculture photo by Mary Hightower)

Drought during 2022 prompted many ranchers to liquidate herds, being unable to find hay to feed their cattle.

“Have we found the bottom? No,” Mitchell said. “It will be 2025 until we see any significant expansion on a national level. In terms of any national impact, we’re not done with herd liquidation. All the hay we were hoping to get did not arrive. I don’t think people are quite done selling cows.”

Mitchell noted that beef production has recovered from the pandemic’s precipitous drop in 2020 but is forecast to decline through 2023. With tighter beef production, expect beef prices to be slightly higher, he said.

“The quantity side of this is per-capita beef consumption, which is forecast at 56.3 pounds per person in 2023,” Mitchell said. That number compares with 59.2 pounds per person in 2022 and 58.8 pounds per person in 2021.

“Some are going to quote this as erosion in beef demand. This is not the case. This number is misleading. We should be calling this per-capita availability.”

Per-capita beef consumption is calculated by taking the amount of beef in cold storage, plus production, minus exports, plus exports, divided by the U.S. population.

Consumer spending on beef has not weakened. While not higher-than-$600-a-year in per-capita spending seen in 1980, consumers still spent $449 a year on beef in 2022.

Thinking about the future
Mitchell said ranchers looking to rebuild should do so carefully.

“If you’re going to buy cows — bred heifers — you’re going to need to think about prices you’ll get over the next six to seven years for her to pay for herself,” he said. “We talk about buy low, sell high. If we are buying heifers now, it’s like buying high and hope you’re selling higher.”

Retired livestock market reporter Nicky Pearson and Jerry Holmes, owner of Cleburne County Livestock Auction, conducted a session on market reports and calf grading.

“We’ve all seen the rollercoaster ride,” said Holmes, who has been in the cattle business all his life. He’s the third generation of his family to operate the livestock sales barn.

Pearson said when it comes to the sales ring, ranchers “need to sit in these seats and see what’s happening. See what’s bringing the money. See what you need to do to get the money.”

He said that calves headed to auction that have been castrated and received respiratory vaccinations do much better in terms of sales price.

“Every fall, the mismanaged cattle takes it on the chin,” he said. “The respiratory vaccinations were particularly important later in the year.

“It pays you to do it more in the fall than it does in the spring,” Pearson said. “You need to consider it when you’re marketing in October.”

Commercial Beef Production chart, showing production from 2019 through a Feb. 2023 forecast. (U of A System Division of Agriculture image courtesy James Mitchell)

Van Buren County Extension Staff Chair Danny Griffin noted that the Cooperative Extension Service has GoGreen as a preconditioning program for calves.

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu/. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk.

High input prices, drought, disease cause Arkansas cattle farmers to struggle

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

Cattle farmer John Kunkel spent much of his professional career as a buyer for Walmart. He decided in 2014 to return to his childhood home in Evening Shade, a small town in Sharp County. He wanted to raise cattle.

He returned home to run his family farm, Peaceful River Farm, located along the Strawberry River. It’s been in their family for more than a century.

He began with a herd of 14 head and has been able to grow it to about 50 head. An input cost explosion at the beginning of 2022 coupled with a drought that impacted hay production means many small cattle operations are struggling to survive, Kunkel told Talk Business & Politics.

https://talkbusiness.net/2023/02/high-input-prices-drought-disease-cause-arkansas-cattle-farmers-to-struggle/

Hay production drops to its lowest level in 11 years

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

Fertilizer prices and drought last year decimated hay production in the United States. The country had its biggest decline in 11 years with stocks at their lowest level since data collection began, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

The Natural State didn’t fare much better.

Arkansas farmers harvested 1.09 million hay acres last year, an 8% decline when compared to the previous year. Those acres yielded two tons per acre, a 10% yearly drop in yield. About 2.19 million tons of hay was produced, a 16% drop.

https://talkbusiness.net/2023/02/hay-production-drops-to-its-lowest-level-in-11-years/

U.S. corn, cotton and soybean production down in 2022

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

Production for corn, cotton and soybeans declined from last year, according to the 2022 Crop Production Annual Summary released by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Drought ravaged nearly every state during the year and it had impacts on harvested acres and yields.

U.S. corn growers produced 13.7 billion bushels, down 9% from 2021. Corn yield in the United States is estimated at 173.3 bushels per acre, 3.4 bushels below the 2021 record high yield of 176.7 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain, at 79.2 million acres, is down 7% from 2021.

Soybean production for 2022 totaled 4.28 billion bushels, down 4% from 2021. The average soybean yield is estimated at 49.5 bushels per acre, 2.2 bushels below 2021, and 0.7 bushel below the Nov. 1 forecast.

https://talkbusiness.net/2023/01/u-s-corn-cotton-and-soybean-production-down-in-2022/

Gus Wilson/UA System Division Of Agriculture

Corn planting begins in this photo from Feb. 24, 2012, in a field near Eudora in Chicot County, Ark.

YEAREND: War, weather drive 2022 ag rollercoaster

By Mary Hightower

LITTLE ROCK — Markets seeking stability after a year of COVID found new turbulence in 2022 as war erupted in the Ukraine and Mid-South farmers found themselves on a weather rollercoaster ride.

WEATHER — Widespread drought and a rainy planting season took farmers on a rollercoaster ride in 2022.

A spring with too much rain, followed by a summer of too much drought, overshadowed any market optimism going into planting time.

“As farmers were in the field preparing to plant their crop, Russia invaded Ukraine fueling uncertainty across the world and in agricultural input markets,” said Hunter Biram, extension economist for the University of Arkansas. “We saw prices paid for chemicals, fertilizer, and fuels increase by about 10 to15 percent over 2021 after there was a 30 percent increase in the prices paid for chemicals, 60 percent increase in prices paid for fertilizer, and 50 percent  increase in the prices paid for fuels relative to 2020

“Any potential relief the high commodity prices provided was essentially eliminated by these increases in input prices,” Biram said.     

According to the 2023 Division of Agriculture crop enterprise budgets, nitrogen fertilizer is projected to be about 6 percent lower relative to 2022 but still 14 percent higher relative to 2021. Phosphate and potash are projected to be up some over 2022 at around 1.6 percent and 0.5 percent higher, respectively. Diammonium phosphate, known as DAP, and defoliant, key inputs used in cotton production, are projected to be up 7 percent and 10 percent respectively over 2022. Insecticides and fungicides, which are key inputs used in rice production are projected to be up 98 percent and 18 percent, respectively, over 2022.  

Spring rains came — lots of it — as farmers were getting crops in the ground, slowing progress and worse, “causing a great deal of yield loss. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency,  of the $1.4 billion in rain-related losses across the U.S., $0.4 billion were primarily in the Mid-South states,” Biram said. "In Arkansas, we saw $171 million in losses account for half of the total coverage purchased in 2022. Prevented planting claims were the primary driver of losses with 81 percent of the losses directly attributed to prevented planting." 

Economist Hunter Biram

Too much water turned to too little as summer began. Farmers in Arkansas had to make some tough choices.

“Drought struck the entire United States which resulted in significant crop losses in Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of the east coast,” Biram said. “Of the $3.9 billion in total drought-related losses across the U.S., $2.4 billion were in the Southeast.”

Arkansas weathered the drought better than other states, thanks to irrigation. Arkansas ranks third nationally in terms of acres under irrigation. However, the drought would find another way to hit farmers in Arkansas and elsewhere, as it dropped the Mississippi River to historically low levels. The levels were so low, the river was closed to traffic between Osecola and Greenville, Mississippi. Elevator prices followed the river levels.

“These price losses at the local grain elevator came in the form of extremely weak basis during arguably the most unfortunate time: harvest,” Biram said. “During the usual harvest window, basis or the local cash price less the relevant futures price, fell from about 40 cents over to 125 under at Helena, Arkansas.

“Once the river levels increased, basis strengthened to about 50 over and has stayed relatively consistent at this level even though most new crop delivery from the 2022 harvest is finished,” he said.

According to the November estimates from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, Arkansas corn was expected to yield 176 bushels per acre, down from 184 bushels per acre in 2021. Cotton was forecast to yield 1,166 pounds per acre in 2022, compared to the record-setting 1,248 pounds per acre in the previous year. Peanuts were expected to yield 5,000 pounds per acre, same as 2021. All rice was expected to yield 7,450 hundredweight per acre in 2022, down from 7,630 the previous year. Soybeans were expected to improve on 2021, rising to 53 bushels per acre — which would be a new state record average yield — up from 52 bushels the previous year.

To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at @AR_Extension. To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk.

Report: Hay and pasture land losses could hit $100 million

KUAR | By George Jared / Talk Business & Politics

The economic impact of a drought that impacted Arkansas for much of the summer could approach $100 million in losses when it comes to hay and pasture field forage losses, according to a report by the Fryar Risk Management Center of Excellence. At least 20 counties in Arkansas have been designated as disaster areas due to drought, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

About 75% of hay and other pasture fields in Arkansas are deemed in poor or very poor condition, the USDA’s Crop Progress report in August indicated. Arkansas livestock farmers use pasture lands to feed their animals during the spring, summer and fall. Many cut hay to feed their livestock during the winter.

“Based on the 2017 U.S. Agriculture Census, Arkansas has 3.189 million acres of permanent pasture land. Assuming changes in acreage between 2017 and 2022 are negligible, 3.189 million acres is the basis for valuing forage production intended for grazing. The 2022 USDARMA county base value of forage production for grazing is $54.51/acre in Arkansas. This implies the total value of grazing acreage in Arkansas is $174 million,” the Fryar report states.

https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/local-regional-news/2022-08-30/report-hay-and-pasture-land-losses-could-hit-100-million

Farmers have decisions to make of crop residue use once harvest is over

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

A severe drought this summer has left at least half of Arkansas’ pasturelands in poor or very poor condition, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This will likely lead to a drop in hay production, which means livestock producers will have to find alternate food sources.

One possible solution would be to collect the crop residues that are left once the harvest is completed. That may help livestock producers, but it could have unintended consequences for row crop fields. Burning fields, a common money-saving practice by many in the Arkansas Delta to clear crop refuse, could also have an impact on field quality and next year’s profitability.

With uncertainty in the market for fertilizer prices over the next year, a University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture soil health expert advised producers at the 2022 Rice Field Day earlier in August to consider the cost of replacing nutrients that will leave their field if they burn crop residue, or sell it for animal forage, after the harvest.

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/08/farmers-have-decisions-to-make-of-crop-residue-use-once-harvest-is-over/

Crop quality, progress in Arkansas aided by rains

KUAR | By George Jared/ Talk Business & Politics

It rained very little during the months of June and July throughout most of northern and eastern Arkansas, plunging many parts of the Natural State into a severe drought. In recent weeks, that trend has changed dramatically and it comes at a time that is critical for many row crop farmers.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) about 25% of the state’s corn crop is mature, as compared to the five-year average of 32% by this point in the growing season. There are an estimated 710,000 corn acres in the state.

Nearly 97% of the state’s soybean crop is blooming, which is 2% ahead of the five-year average. Arkansas farmers planted 3.2 million soybean acres, making it the state’s most widely grown crop.

https://www.ualrpublicradio.org/local-regional-news/2022-08-15/crop-quality-progress-in-arkansas-aided-by-rains

U.S. cotton farmers projected to harvest fewest acres since Reconstruction due to drought

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

If the newest harvest projections hold, U.S. farmers will harvest the least number of cotton acres in over 150 years. A crippling drought across many parts of the South and West is causing farmers to abandon fields at a record rate, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“USDA projected this year’s harvested acres at 7.13 million,” said Scott Stiles, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “That would be the lowest since 1868.”

Stiles said the USDA’s latest report projected that about 43% of U.S. planted cotton acres are expected to be abandoned this year, “largely due to the extreme drought conditions in the southwest region, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.”

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/08/u-s-cotton-farmers-projected-to-harvest-fewest-acres-since-reconstruction-due-to-drought/

Crop quality, progress aided by rains

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

It rained very little during the months of June and July throughout most of northern and eastern Arkansas, plunging many parts of the Natural State into a severe drought. In recent weeks, that trend has changed dramatically and it comes at a time that is critical for many row crop farmers.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) about 25% of the state’s corn crop is mature, as compared to the five-year average of 32% by this point in the growing season. There are an estimated 710,000 corn acres in the state.

Nearly 97% of the state’s soybean crop is blooming, which is 2% ahead of the five-year average. Arkansas farmers planted 3.2 million soybean acres, making it the state’s most widely grown crop.

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/08/crop-quality-progress-aided-by-rains/

Drought pressing U.S. cattle inventory numbers to lowest levels since 2015

HEAT WAVES — The United States’ cattle inventory has shrunk to its lowest numbers since 2015 thanks to the drought sprawling across the western half of the country.

By the U of A System Division of Agriculture

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The United States’ cattle inventory has shrunk to its lowest numbers since 2015 thanks to the drought sprawling across the western half of the country.

HEAT WAVES — The United States’ cattle inventory has shrunk to its lowest numbers since 2015 thanks to the drought sprawling across the western half of the country.

James Mitchell, extension livestock economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said total cattle inventories stood at 98.8 million, “falling below 100 million for the first time since 2015.”

Mitchell said the numbers, which came out the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s June 22 Cattle Inventory Report, were somewhat better than expectations.

“While inventories posted a year-over-year decline, National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates were higher than pre-report expectations, with analysts expecting larger decreases in cattle numbers,” he said, adding that the NASS estimates were not a significant departure from pre-report expectations.

“Drought has been the main factor contributing to the decline in the number of beef cows and replacement heifers,” Mitchell said. “Total beef cow slaughter through June is 14.6 percent higher year over year.”

Mitchell said beef and dairy cow inventories were 2.4 percent and 0.5 percent lower compared to July 2022, respectively.

“The report confirms another year of beef cow herd liquidation with little evidence of anyone looking to expand,” he said.

“Regionally, drought pressure this month has been a big concern in the Southeast,” Mitchell said. “The effects of drought are shown in the auction data. For example, auction receipts for Arkansas show a 20 percent increase in slaughter cattle sales.”

For the first 30 weeks in 2021, 20,942 head of slaughter cattle went to auction. This year that number rose to 25,033.

The full report is available on the USDA-NASS website.

To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu.

Cattle herds plummet nationally as slaughter cattle sales in Arkansas balloon

by George Jared (gjared@talkbusiness.net)

The first tangible signs that the beef cattle industry in Arkansas is retracting are now visible. Cattle farmers throughout the South and West are culling herds, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics (NASS) report.

As of July 1, there were an estimated 98.8 million head of cattle nationwide, a 2% drop in total from 2021, the report states. It’s the lowest cattle inventory level in the U.S. since 2015 when the industry endured a severe collapse during the fall of that year.

Drought conditions have spread throughout the South and West and now are impacting nearly every state in the country including Alaska and Hawaii, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. In Arkansas three counties – Fulton, Sharp, and Randolph – are classified as D3 or in extreme drought. The only category that is worse is D4 or exceptional drought.

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/07/cattle-herds-plummet-nationally-as-slaughter-cattle-sales-in-arkansas-balloon/

Henry: Next 30 days critical for irrigators, crops and equipment

MAKING IT RAIN — Irrigation pivot running in Marvell, Arkansas, on July 17, 2022, as drought deepened in Arkansas. (U of A System Division of Agriculture photo by Mary Hightower)

By Mary Hightower
U of A System Division of Agriculture

STUTTGART, Ark. — If there’s one message Chris Henry has for Arkansas row crop farmers during the drought, it’s “don’t get in a hurry.”

Henry, professor and water management engineer for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, has posted a handout with a variety of tactics aimed at helping farmers get the most crop they can with what irrigation is available. Additional information can be found in a fact sheet series on Arkansas crop irrigation.

“The next 30 days will be critical for many irrigators, as fatigues sets in, and many crops are still at or entering high water demand,” Henry said. “However, there are things that farmers can do to mitigate both the human and plant stress being experienced.”  

Arkansas has experienced a broken string of days with highs in the triple digits, with rain in short supply. The U.S. Drought monitor map of July 19 showed all of Arkansas experiencing some form of drought. The Climate Prediction Center’s extended outlook issued July 21 showed most of Arkansas with temperatures well above normal. However, the CPC’s precipitation outlook was more promising, with the northern two-thirds of the state possibly seeing above-average amounts.

Henry’s tactics include:

• Using a computerized hole selection program such as Pipe Planner, Rice Irrigation or PHAUCET to help plan water distribution across the field. Henry said use of these programs can reduce pump time by between 10 percent and 50 percent.

• Plan to be patient. Henry said water is drawn down from wells and reservoirs, pumps have to lift water further. “Expect to take longer to irrigate a set or flood up a field and adjust accordingly,” he said. “Some alluvial wells can drop off as much as 50 percent and it’s not uncommon for relifts to fall off 30 percent as we get to the bottom.”

• Soil sensors are still relevant. “It’s not too late to incorporate sensors into irrigation management,” Henry said. “Using sensors to determine the last irrigation of the season is the largest payback of monitoring soil moisture, it almost always saves at least one irrigation and allows for planning ahead of dwindling irrigation supplies.”

Even with one or two sets of sensors — for less than $500 — estimating the number of irrigations left can be done for the entire enterprise. “In a drought year like 2022, sensors can save both water and profitability,” Henry said.

• Irrigate deeply. Instead of flushing fields with limited water, try to fill the profile up when irrigating, Henry said. “This will encourage the roots to go deeper for water and reduce the number of sets for the season-saving on precious labor.”

• Check those pumps. Drought is prompting farmers to run their irrigation pumps beyond the typical 800 hours a year.

“For diesel power units, oil changes and greasing propeller shafts may seem obvious, but changing the oil in the gear head is often overlooked,” Henry said. He also urged farmers with electric motors to be sure to use both the correct lubrication and amount. “If the oil in the sight window is black or white, there is a high risk of bearing failure.”

The fact sheet provides additional guidance, tables and example calculations, on how to estimate crop demand and the amount and number of irrigations needed for reservoirs and wells as supplies draw down. 

“Heat stress and heat exhaustion awareness are real threats to safely sustaining irrigation, keep ample water to employees and yourself and don’t get in a hurry, it may take more time to do things safely,” Henry said.

 To learn more about Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow on Twitter at @ArkAgResearch. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit https://uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit www.uaex.uada.edu.