Warnings and Watches Issued Today from the National Weather Service

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of the forecast area in response to Hurricane Laura impacting the region.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for nearly all of our area through 7 AM Friday #TSLaura is expected to bring widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches w/ isolated higher amounts near 8 inches. Remember, #TurnAroundDontDrown!

Sporadic tornadoes will be possible within the rain bands of Hurricane Laura today. The greatest tornado risk overnight will be over the northeastern quadrant of the hurricane, primarily over areas of North Central Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Laura Effect on Arkansas

National Weather Service statement regarding Tropical Storm Laura and its possible effect on Arkansas

Tropical Storm Laura Impacts to Arkansas

What’s Coming

• Tropical Storm Laura is expected to strengthen into a hurricane today over the Gulf of Mexico.

• Laura is forecast to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning along the northern Gulf coast near the Texas/Louisiana border.

• The storm center will lift north over Arkansas sometime Thursday afternoon into Friday. Impacts could be felt as early as Wednesday afternoon and night.

Hazards

• Heavy rain/flash

• Strong winds/wind gusts (mainly southern Arkansas)

• Isolated tornadoes (mainly central/eastern Arkansas)

Discussion

The latest official forecast track has Laura making landfall near the Texas/Louisiana coast as a major hurricane Wednesday night or early Thursday Morning, with the storm moving into Arkansas Thursday afternoon or evening.

Specific impacts will be determined by Laura's track across Arkansas, and slight variations could significantly alter the forecast.

Rainfall...

Heavy rainfall is a given, especially near and to the east of the center as rain bands repeatedly move over the same areas. Based on the latest forecast, western and central Arkansas will be the prime areas for heavy rainfall, with amounts of four to six inches likely, and localized totals in excess of seven inches.

While most of central and eastern Arkansas has been running below average on rainfall as of late, portions of southwest and western Arkansas have been running five to ten inches above average month to date.

We definitely think flash flooding will be a concern, but it would likely take longer to materialize in the driest areas.

Winds...

Even as Laura moves into Arkansas, it is likely to still be maintaining tropical storm strength.

· Sustained winds of 30 to 40 MPH will be possible surrounding the center of circulation, and gusts could approach or even briefly exceed 50 MPH.

· While the winds alone are enough cause for concern, any areas that have experienced heavy rainfall could see more downed trees due to saturated ground.

Tornadoes...

Tornadoes will be possible in the bands north and east of the center of circulation. These are the types of tornadoes that tend to be very brief and move south to north or southeast to northwest. They are particularly challenging to warn for, as they tend to be shallow and short-lived.

Threat timing (Greatest potential)...

Heavy rainfall - Thursday and Friday

Winds - Thursday Afternoon and Evening

Tornadoes - Thursday and Thursday Night

As far as rivers are concerned, with the current amount of rainfall expected, we could see rises in the Ouachita, Saline, Fourche Lafave, Little Missouri and Arkansas basins.

Again, any change in the anticipated track of Laura could alter the forecast significantly.

NWS meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation and adjust the forecast as necessary.

Continue to monitor the latest information from the National Hurricane Center and your Arkansas NWS forecast offices.

National Weather Service

Little Rock, Arkansas

Tropical Storm Laura to Affect This Week's Weather

The National Weather Service predicts our area will be impacted by Laura this week.

We wanted to send everyone a quick "heads-up" email about the upcoming potential for impacts from Tropical Storm Laura. At this time, we don't anticipate much in the way of impacts from Hurricane Marco, which is expected to come ashore across southeast Louisiana Monday. However. some uncertainty does remain with the eventual impacts of Marco.

Probably the most important piece of information and why we haven't sent any emails previously is that forecast information has remained inconsistent in terms of where we believe each of the storms will make landfall. From there, the northward path inland of the storms continues to vary as well.

Now, regarding the second storm, Laura. According to the National Hurricane Center and other forecast information, the latest data leads us to believe Laura will make landfall along the upper Texas/Louisiana coast area as a category 2 hurricane Wednesday into Wednesday night. It will then track along the TX/LA border Thursday, making its way into north-central Arkansas Friday morning.

With this track being utilized, the heaviest rainfall amounts will occur across southwest into central portions of the state. Sustained winds across much of southern into central Arkansas could be in the 25-35 mph range with higher gusts. Lastly, with the storm tracking north from southwest to north central Arkansas, all but far western Arkansas could potentially see a threat for isolated tornadoes.

With all this being said, significant changes to impacts may still occur depending on the path it takes. The potential for the path of this storm ranges anywhere from eastern Oklahoma to western Mississippi, with Arkansas in the middle. Due to this uncertainty, please monitor the latest forecast information and we will keep everyone updated in the coming days as often as we can.

(See the attached images for the latest information about the potential track, rainfall and potential for strong winds.)

-NWS Little Rock