Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas today

• [WHAT] Strong to possibly a few severe thunderstorms are likely to impact Arkansas.

• [WHEN] Today, Tuesday March 4, 2025.

• [WHERE] Most of the state, but especially portions of central Arkansas, and all of southern Arkansas.

  [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• If the environment destabilizes enough, severe weather (including tornadoes) will become likely.

• Gusty winds in excess of 40+ mph will be possible ahead of the thunderstorm activity and after the passage of the thunderstorm activity through Wednesday.

  [KEEP IN MIND]

• The early arrival of precipitation (this morning) may keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. If rain arrives later, or progresses more slowly to the east, then destabilization will occur. This is very concerning given that available shear will be impressive (to promote tornadoes).

• This will be the last severe weather briefing regarding the severe thunderstorms moving across the state today.

The most widespread hazard across Arkansas today will be the risk for damaging wind gusts. Damaging wind gusts will be possible statewide; however, southern portions of the state will see the highest potential for severe winds. (Note the hatched area across southern Arkansas which indicates a 10% or greater chance for significant severe winds equal to or greater than 74 mph.)

Severe Weather for Arkansas possible on Tuesday

Ahead of a powerful storm system (“L”) in the southern Plains, there will be a lot of shear/turning with height (to promote tornadoes), with a southerly 50 to 70 knot jet at 850 millibars (5,000 feet) and a southwest 70 to 100+ knot jet at 500 millibars (18,000 feet).

• [WHAT] Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could impact the state early next week.

• [WHEN] Tuesday, March 4th.

• [WHERE] Across much of Arkansas, but especially the eastern half of the state.

  [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• A strong storm system and cold front are expected to approach by early next week.

• The system will try to bring warm, moist, and unstable air into the region from the Gulf Coast.

• If the environment destabilizes enough, severe weather (including tornadoes) will become likely.

  [WHAT HAS CHANGED]

• It appears an early arrival of precipitation (Tuesday morning) may keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. If rain arrives later, or progresses more slowly to the east, then destabilization will occur. This is very concerning given that available shear will be impressive (to promote tornadoes).

• Continue to monitor the latest briefings as we assess trends in medium to short-term model data.

Winter Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• [WHAT] Winter weather conditions, including accumulating snow, mixed sleet and snow, and some freezing rain is forecast to spread across the state today through Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel impacts.

• [WHEN] Winter precipitation will begin across northwest Arkansas later this morning, and expand towards central to southern Arkansas by this afternoon to evening, and persist through Wednesday morning (February 19).

• [WHERE] Significant accumulating snowfall is expected across the northern third of the state, with mixed precipitation including sleet/snow and freezing rain over the southern two-thirds of the state.

• [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of northern and central Arkansas due to heavy snow and sleet. This is where forecast confidence is highest for impactful accumulations.

• Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the remainder of the state where lesser snow, sleet, and freezing rain totals are expected.

• Hazardous cold is forecast by Wednesday morning with single digit to negative morning wind chill values forecast through Friday morning. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for a large portion of the state tonight, and additional cold weather headlines will likely be needed through Friday morning.

Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service

The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur across the southeast half of the state. Rainfall totals may lead to continued or new river flooding, along with flash flooding, especially across southeast Arkansas

• A final round of light freezing rain is possible this morning across portions of north-central to northwest Arkansas. Some locations have also seen a transition to snow/sleet.

• Locations that see sleet or snow could see impacts to roadways this morning, especially bridges/overpasses.

• This precipitation is expected to come to an end by early afternoon.

• Across the rest of the state, widespread rain is expected and could be heavy at times.

• There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across the southern half of Arkansas on Saturday.

Winter Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• Snow appears most likely well to the north of Arkansas

• A cold rain is favored across much of the southern half of the state and nearby areas

• There is an increasing concern that areas along the AR/MO border, including the higher terrain in Arkansas, will have to deal with freezing rain or mixed precipitation

Heavy rain and severe weather possibilities for Arkansas this week

• A strong storm system will approach the state from the southwest in the coming days.

• Rain will become widespread from west to east across the area Wednesday evening through Thursday

• As the system moves through, heavy rainfall is possible from southeast Oklahoma across portions of western and northern Arkansas.

• Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly southern Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

• The threat for hazardous weather is expected to come to an end by Friday morning as the storm system moves east of the state.

Winter weather headed for Arkansas; briefing attached

Winter Storm Warnings continue across the vast majority of Arkansas through the Thursday-Friday (January 9-10) timeframe. A Winter Weather Advisory is posted in the far southeast. The Winter Storm Warning area currently encompasses where the highest confidence for impactful conditions exist.

NWS issues a Winter Storm Warning for southern and central Arkansas

Portions of the Winter Storm Watch have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, valid through the Thursday-Friday (January 9-10) timeframe. The Winter Storm Warning area currently encompasses where the highest confidence for impactful conditions exist. Changes and expansions to the watch and warning areas are still possible and should be expected!

• WHAT HAS CHANGED: Portions of the Winter Storm Watch have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, mainly including the southern half of the state (south of I-40). This largely includes where confidence of impactful snowfall is currently highest. Expansions of the warning are still possible!

• WHAT WE KNOW: A strong storm system is forecast to impact Arkansas Thursday morning through Friday evening bringing heavy snow across much of the state. Greatest confidence for impacts will be across west-central to central Arkansas.

• WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: Exact placement of greatest snow amounts, and where locally greater totals could occur due to banding. Where snow may change over to sleet, freezing rain, or just rain near the Louisiana border. Expect changes and refinement to the forecast!

Winter Storm Watch for Arkansas Thursday and Friday

Western to southwestern Arkansas and the Ouachita Mountains is expected to see the greatest snowfall accumulations.

• WHAT HAS CHANGED: • Forecast liquid-equivalent (QPF) was increased across the forecast area, which has increased forecast snowfall amounts. • A Winter Storm Watch has been issued across portions of western, southwestern, and central Arkansas, following the areas of highest confidence for winter weather impacts Thursday through Friday (January 9-10).

• WHAT WE KNOW: • A strong storm system is forecast to move across the southern Gulf Coast Thursday through Friday, and is expected to bring impactful winter weather to the state. • Greatest confidence for impacts remains across western to southwestern Arkansas.

• WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: • There is still uncertainty regarding the exact placement of where the greatest snowfall amounts could occur. This will be addressed over the next few runs of forecast data. • There is also uncertainty across the Arkansas/Louisiana border region with regard to mixed precip types (freezing rain versus wintry mix). Expect changes and refinement to the forecast!

Confidence continues to increase on an impactful winter storm across the state during the Thursday-Friday timeframe (January 9-10). New updates with this briefing include the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for a large portion of the state. 

 The greatest impacts are currently expected across western to southwestern, and portions of central Arkansas. Expect changes to the footprint of greatest snowfall accumulations, and the Winter Storm Watch!

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing

A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is expected to move into western Arkansas Monday night ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rainfall has already fallen across a good portion of central, western, and northern Arkansas over the last 24-hours. Additional heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible through Tuesday (election day). Here is an in-depth briefing explaining expected weather conditions through Wednesday morning.

• Widespread rain fell yesterday and overnight leading to flooding across portions of northern Arkansas.

• Additional rainfall is expected today and into Tuesday as a cold front begins to push towards the state.

• An additional one to three inches will be possible through Tuesday

National Weather Service in Little Rock Drought Conditions and Rainfall Outlook, Wildfire Danger, and Burn Bans

Still not looking for any appreciable rainfall across much of Arkansas the next 7 days. This will continue to affect drought and fire weather concerns. However, the latest 8 to 14 day outlook shows promising signs for decent rain chances heading into early November.

The lack of rainfall continues to result in very dry conditions and a heightened risk of wildfires across Arkansas. Also, a number of counties remain under burn bans.

Across the country, the worst drought conditions (at least D3) were in the Rockies, Plains, mid-South (including Arkansas), Ohio Valley, and the central Appalachians.

Here at home in October (through the 14th), other than a few sprinkles in places, it was bone dry across the region. Cold fronts were preceded by well above average temperatures, and passed through with nothing more than a wind shift (and maybe a few clouds) followed by very low afternoon humidity levels (less than 20 percent at times). By the 18th, burn bans were posted in 55 (of 75) counties, and many of these counties had a high wildfire danger (according to the Arkansas Forestry Division). Agricultural disasters were declared in Nevada, Perry, and Yell Counties.

National Weather Service says heat advisories and excessive heat warnings likely issued this week

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Ridging is expected to continue to shift eastward and have more of a grip on our region by Tuesday night and really continue well into next weekend. In response to this, afternoon temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday will range from the upper 90s to lower 100s each day across the region, possibly getting slightly warmer each day into the weekend. Sounds amazing right? In addition to that, heat index values will be at or well above the Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees each day. The only real concern for each day of the week will be where we place the Heat Advisory versus the Excessive Heat Warning each day as the location of the hottest heat indices could vary at times. Not much rain to speak of for the long-term portion of the forecast period unfortunately aside from any diurnal convection during the afternoon hours. Long range models do show a potential for some rainfall Sunday into Monday as the ridge looks to retrograde to the west slightly and our area returns to northwest flow aloft.

Hazardous Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• Heavy rainfall occurred overnight through early Wednesday morning across northern Arkansas which has led to serious flash flooding concerns in some locations

• Estimated rainfall totals above 10 inches have been observed across portions of Searcy, Stone, Marion and Baxter Counties

• Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow which could worsen ongoing flash flooding

• Southern Arkansas could see heat index values of 105 or higher this afternoon

• If you have any flash flooding reports, please pass them along to our office when it is convenient

Tropical Storm Beryl Briefing from the National Weather Service

Areas from southwest to north-central Arkansas could see the highest totals (isolated 4-6 inch amounts)

This map shows rainfall totals through Tuesday night, which includes some rainfall expected before Beryl moves through.

• TS Beryl will move onshore along the Texas coast late tonight into early Monday morning, likely as a hurricane.

• Beryl will quickly weaken and move toward the north then northeast, traveling across east/northeast Texas Monday into early Tuesday morning.

• The remnants of Beryl are expected to move across Arkansas from Monday afternoon through Tuesday before lifting northeast of the state by early Wednesday morning.

• The remnants of Beryl could provide some locally heavy rain and perhaps a few tornadoes/damaging wind gusts across Arkansas from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• A cold front will push through Arkansas beginning on Wednesday morning along the Arkansas/Missouri border in the north and traverse the state moving southward during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be present along this cold front as it moves across the state from north to south.

• Re-development or rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity will be possible as the cold front moves across central and into southern Arkansas into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.

• Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

National Weather Service issues a heat advisory for the four-state region

Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Union-DeSoto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches- Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin- Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison- Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- Sabine-

156 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 109.

* WHERE...Portions of south-central and southwest Arkansas, north-central and northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, and east and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments to reduce risk during outdoor work. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

NWS Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas June 3, 2024

• A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a line that will enter northwestern Arkansas by Monday afternoon and sweep southeastward across the state into Monday evening.

• Damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible in any storm that becomes severe.

• The tornado threat in this environment remains very low, but not zero.

• The Flash Flooding threat with this system is low, but locations that saw high rainfall totals with the activity from Thursday and locations that experience efficient rainfall producing cells this afternoon/evening may see flash flooding, especially in prone areas.

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas

• An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.

• Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing for Arkansas Tues-Thurs

Severe Threat for Arkansas Late This Afternoon and Tonight - (National Weather Service/Little Rock Graph)

• An active weather pattern will develop starting late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops southeast towards Arkansas.

• Chances for severe weather will increase starting late this evening into the overnight hours across far northwest sections of Arkansas. This threat will spread further southeast for Wednesday, and continue for a large portion of the state on Thursday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms through tonight will be large hail and damaging winds, with a brief tornado or two possible. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, with a few tornadoes also possible. Large hail and damaging winds will again be primary threats for Thursday.

• There is some uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Wednesday as timing of morning thunderstorms may create less instability for afternoon thunderstorm development.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches could be seen from late tonight through Friday morning. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

Severe weather likely in Arkansas beginning Wednesday evening; briefing updated

• Severe storms are expected to fire across Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours.

• Chances for severe weather will increase through the day as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

• All modes of severe weather are in play this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

• On Thursday, storms will be mostly south of Arkansas but could impact far southern portions of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards.

Minor updates have been made by the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR.

They include the addition of NW Arkansas to the Tornado Outlook and Overnight Timing Graphics. 

Storms are expected to initially develop by early evening across northern and western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms will gradually shift eastward through the evening hours with the very large hail threat becoming slightly lower. The damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will persist. Activity should make it east of the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday.