National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing

A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is expected to move into western Arkansas Monday night ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rainfall has already fallen across a good portion of central, western, and northern Arkansas over the last 24-hours. Additional heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible through Tuesday (election day). Here is an in-depth briefing explaining expected weather conditions through Wednesday morning.

• Widespread rain fell yesterday and overnight leading to flooding across portions of northern Arkansas.

• Additional rainfall is expected today and into Tuesday as a cold front begins to push towards the state.

• An additional one to three inches will be possible through Tuesday

National Weather Service in Little Rock Drought Conditions and Rainfall Outlook, Wildfire Danger, and Burn Bans

Still not looking for any appreciable rainfall across much of Arkansas the next 7 days. This will continue to affect drought and fire weather concerns. However, the latest 8 to 14 day outlook shows promising signs for decent rain chances heading into early November.

The lack of rainfall continues to result in very dry conditions and a heightened risk of wildfires across Arkansas. Also, a number of counties remain under burn bans.

Across the country, the worst drought conditions (at least D3) were in the Rockies, Plains, mid-South (including Arkansas), Ohio Valley, and the central Appalachians.

Here at home in October (through the 14th), other than a few sprinkles in places, it was bone dry across the region. Cold fronts were preceded by well above average temperatures, and passed through with nothing more than a wind shift (and maybe a few clouds) followed by very low afternoon humidity levels (less than 20 percent at times). By the 18th, burn bans were posted in 55 (of 75) counties, and many of these counties had a high wildfire danger (according to the Arkansas Forestry Division). Agricultural disasters were declared in Nevada, Perry, and Yell Counties.

National Weather Service says heat advisories and excessive heat warnings likely issued this week

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Ridging is expected to continue to shift eastward and have more of a grip on our region by Tuesday night and really continue well into next weekend. In response to this, afternoon temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday will range from the upper 90s to lower 100s each day across the region, possibly getting slightly warmer each day into the weekend. Sounds amazing right? In addition to that, heat index values will be at or well above the Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees each day. The only real concern for each day of the week will be where we place the Heat Advisory versus the Excessive Heat Warning each day as the location of the hottest heat indices could vary at times. Not much rain to speak of for the long-term portion of the forecast period unfortunately aside from any diurnal convection during the afternoon hours. Long range models do show a potential for some rainfall Sunday into Monday as the ridge looks to retrograde to the west slightly and our area returns to northwest flow aloft.

Hazardous Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• Heavy rainfall occurred overnight through early Wednesday morning across northern Arkansas which has led to serious flash flooding concerns in some locations

• Estimated rainfall totals above 10 inches have been observed across portions of Searcy, Stone, Marion and Baxter Counties

• Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow which could worsen ongoing flash flooding

• Southern Arkansas could see heat index values of 105 or higher this afternoon

• If you have any flash flooding reports, please pass them along to our office when it is convenient

Tropical Storm Beryl Briefing from the National Weather Service

Areas from southwest to north-central Arkansas could see the highest totals (isolated 4-6 inch amounts)

This map shows rainfall totals through Tuesday night, which includes some rainfall expected before Beryl moves through.

• TS Beryl will move onshore along the Texas coast late tonight into early Monday morning, likely as a hurricane.

• Beryl will quickly weaken and move toward the north then northeast, traveling across east/northeast Texas Monday into early Tuesday morning.

• The remnants of Beryl are expected to move across Arkansas from Monday afternoon through Tuesday before lifting northeast of the state by early Wednesday morning.

• The remnants of Beryl could provide some locally heavy rain and perhaps a few tornadoes/damaging wind gusts across Arkansas from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• A cold front will push through Arkansas beginning on Wednesday morning along the Arkansas/Missouri border in the north and traverse the state moving southward during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be present along this cold front as it moves across the state from north to south.

• Re-development or rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity will be possible as the cold front moves across central and into southern Arkansas into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.

• Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

National Weather Service issues a heat advisory for the four-state region

Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Union-DeSoto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches- Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin- Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison- Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- Sabine-

156 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 109.

* WHERE...Portions of south-central and southwest Arkansas, north-central and northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, and east and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments to reduce risk during outdoor work. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

NWS Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas June 3, 2024

• A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a line that will enter northwestern Arkansas by Monday afternoon and sweep southeastward across the state into Monday evening.

• Damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible in any storm that becomes severe.

• The tornado threat in this environment remains very low, but not zero.

• The Flash Flooding threat with this system is low, but locations that saw high rainfall totals with the activity from Thursday and locations that experience efficient rainfall producing cells this afternoon/evening may see flash flooding, especially in prone areas.

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas

• An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.

• Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing for Arkansas Tues-Thurs

Severe Threat for Arkansas Late This Afternoon and Tonight - (National Weather Service/Little Rock Graph)

• An active weather pattern will develop starting late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops southeast towards Arkansas.

• Chances for severe weather will increase starting late this evening into the overnight hours across far northwest sections of Arkansas. This threat will spread further southeast for Wednesday, and continue for a large portion of the state on Thursday.

• The primary threats expected with the strongest storms through tonight will be large hail and damaging winds, with a brief tornado or two possible. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, with a few tornadoes also possible. Large hail and damaging winds will again be primary threats for Thursday.

• There is some uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Wednesday as timing of morning thunderstorms may create less instability for afternoon thunderstorm development.

• Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches could be seen from late tonight through Friday morning. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.

Severe weather likely in Arkansas beginning Wednesday evening; briefing updated

• Severe storms are expected to fire across Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours.

• Chances for severe weather will increase through the day as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

• All modes of severe weather are in play this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

• On Thursday, storms will be mostly south of Arkansas but could impact far southern portions of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards.

Minor updates have been made by the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR.

They include the addition of NW Arkansas to the Tornado Outlook and Overnight Timing Graphics. 

Storms are expected to initially develop by early evening across northern and western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms will gradually shift eastward through the evening hours with the very large hail threat becoming slightly lower. The damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will persist. Activity should make it east of the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday.

Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS in Little Rock

After activity comes to an end this morning, some additional thunderstorms could develop across central into southeast Arkansas this evening into tonight. But, the severe weather threat with this activity remains low.

The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday during the evening into the overnight hours.

Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

All modes of severe weather are in play. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• There is a potential for severe weather today through Wednesday. The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday.

• In the near term, an outbreak of severe weather is expected in the Plains today. A line of strong/severe storms will approach northwest Arkansas tonight, but should weaken as it progresses into the state during the predawn hours Tuesday. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pop up Tuesday afternoon, but any severe weather will be spotty.

• Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment. All modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding.

National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing

A cold front will push through Arkansas from the Plains on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm conditions/well above normal temperatures will exist, creating a very unstable environment.

A broken line of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northwest counties Thursday afternoon. The line is then expected to move towards central and northeastern locations Thursday evening and night. There are indications the line will gradually weaken after the sun sets, and daytime heating is lost.

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, especially across northern and extreme western parts of the state. A low, but non-zero tornado chances exists across the northeastern half of the state.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• A powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front towards Arkansas Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop tracking across portions of central and northern Arkansas. Damaging straight-line winds and hail appear to be the primary concern associated with storms Tuesday afternoon.

• An additional round of severe weather will be possible Thursday across portions of the state. Once again damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern with this system.

Severe Weather Briefing Monday night into Tuesday for Arkansas

• After a quiet but breezy/warm weekend, a powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward Arkansas late Monday into late Tuesday night.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of Iowa and Nebraska to northern Texas Monday/Monday night. The focus for possible severe weather will shift eastward into Arkansas on Tuesday.

• Damaging straight-line winds appear the primary thunderstorm hazard across Arkansas, although large hail and a tornado or two will be possible with any supercells that manage to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• An unsettled weather pattern will continue today/tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast, and areas of heavy rain are expected.

• The forecast calls for an additional half inch to more than two inches of rain across Arkansas. Spotty flash flooding is possible, and some minor river flooding is likely to occur or is ongoing.

• While the primary concern will be heavy rain, there could be isolated severe storms across southern Arkansas. More significant severe weather is likely farther south along the Gulf Coast (from Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama).

National Weather Service Eclipse Weather Briefing for Arkansas

A large storm system will be over the southwest United States during the day of the eclipse. Ahead of the system, a south to southwest flow will bring increasing moisture and the possibility of clouds/chances of showers throughout the path of totality in Arkansas.  

Important to Remember: Despite vast improvements of weather models in recent years, any information over more than a few days of a specific time is subject to change. Forecast details will be fine tuned as additional data is received up to the time of the eclipse.   

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service

Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this evening and continue into Monday night. The only real change to the forecast is the computer models continue to slow the progression of the system down.  

The northwest part of Arkansas continues to have the best chances of seeing severe weather with decreasing chances further to the southeast.

•  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The computer models continue their trend of late in slowing the system down.

• Some storms are expected to become strong to severe, especially over the northwest half of Arkansas. These locations will have the greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients Monday evening and into early Tuesday. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

• Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are possible across the rest of the state as well, but chances decrease toward the south and east as the storms are forecast to weaken.

• Southerly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph will be possible on Monday afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and move into Arkansas later this afternoon and early evening. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards through later tonight.

The main changes with this briefing include:

-- An expansion of the "Enhanced Risk" area towards northeastern Arkansas

-- The introduction of a 10% Tornado Risk Area over northwestern to northern central Arkansas

Large and damaging hail remains the primary threat with storms today, though all modes of severe weather will be possible today and tonight.

Click on the attached briefing below for more specific forecast information.