A cold front will push through Arkansas beginning on Wednesday morning along the Arkansas/Missouri border in the north and traverse the state moving southward during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be present along this cold front as it moves across the state from north to south.
Re-development or rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity will be possible as the cold front moves across central and into southern Arkansas into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Severe Weather Possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas
An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.
Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.
The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.
Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.
National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing for Arkansas Tues-Thurs
Severe Threat for Arkansas Late This Afternoon and Tonight - (National Weather Service/Little Rock Graph)
An active weather pattern will develop starting late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops southeast towards Arkansas.
Chances for severe weather will increase starting late this evening into the overnight hours across far northwest sections of Arkansas. This threat will spread further southeast for Wednesday, and continue for a large portion of the state on Thursday.
The primary threats expected with the strongest storms through tonight will be large hail and damaging winds, with a brief tornado or two possible. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, with a few tornadoes also possible. Large hail and damaging winds will again be primary threats for Thursday.
There is some uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Wednesday as timing of morning thunderstorms may create less instability for afternoon thunderstorm development.
Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches could be seen from late tonight through Friday morning. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.
Severe weather likely in Arkansas beginning Wednesday evening; briefing updated
Severe storms are expected to fire across Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Chances for severe weather will increase through the day as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.
All modes of severe weather are in play this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.
On Thursday, storms will be mostly south of Arkansas but could impact far southern portions of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards.
Minor updates have been made by the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR.
They include the addition of NW Arkansas to the Tornado Outlook and Overnight Timing Graphics.
Storms are expected to initially develop by early evening across northern and western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms will gradually shift eastward through the evening hours with the very large hail threat becoming slightly lower. The damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will persist. Activity should make it east of the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday.
Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS in Little Rock
After activity comes to an end this morning, some additional thunderstorms could develop across central into southeast Arkansas this evening into tonight. But, the severe weather threat with this activity remains low.
The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday during the evening into the overnight hours.
Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.
All modes of severe weather are in play. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
A powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front towards Arkansas Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop tracking across portions of central and northern Arkansas. Damaging straight-line winds and hail appear to be the primary concern associated with storms Tuesday afternoon.
An additional round of severe weather will be possible Thursday across portions of the state. Once again damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern with this system.
Severe Weather Briefing Monday night into Tuesday for Arkansas
After a quiet but breezy/warm weekend, a powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward Arkansas late Monday into late Tuesday night.
Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of Iowa and Nebraska to northern Texas Monday/Monday night. The focus for possible severe weather will shift eastward into Arkansas on Tuesday.
Damaging straight-line winds appear the primary thunderstorm hazard across Arkansas, although large hail and a tornado or two will be possible with any supercells that manage to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this evening and continue into Monday night. The only real change to the forecast is the computer models continue to slow the progression of the system down.
The northwest part of Arkansas continues to have the best chances of seeing severe weather with decreasing chances further to the southeast.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The computer models continue their trend of late in slowing the system down.
Some storms are expected to become strong to severe, especially over the northwest half of Arkansas. These locations will have the greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients Monday evening and into early Tuesday. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns and isolated tornadoes will be possible.
Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are possible across the rest of the state as well, but chances decrease toward the south and east as the storms are forecast to weaken.
Southerly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph will be possible on Monday afternoon and evening.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
There will be a brief window for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening over the south and southeast parts of the state. While there will be a lot of wind energy with this system, instability is low which will keep the severe threat limited.
Windy conditions are expected to develop before the actual system arrives and some parts of the state may see some locally heavy rain.
We continue to monitor a strong cold front that will be moving across the state Monday into Monday evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with higher gusts possible outside of any thunderstorm activity.
Strong gusty winds remain the primary threat with storms on Monday. While the tornado threat is minimal, it is not zero.
The greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients will lie over southern and southeastern Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening. While there is a tremendous amount of wind energy with this system, instability is limited.
Widespread rain is expected before the actual cold front arrives which will further decrease the chance of widespread severe weather.
In addition to severe weather, localized heavy rainfall is possible, primarily over the western half of the state. Some localized flash flooding issues may arise as a result.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and move into Arkansas later this afternoon and early evening. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards through later tonight.
The main changes with this briefing include:
-- An expansion of the "Enhanced Risk" area towards northeastern Arkansas
-- The introduction of a 10% Tornado Risk Area over northwestern to northern central Arkansas
Large and damaging hail remains the primary threat with storms today, though all modes of severe weather will be possible today and tonight.
Click on the attached briefing below for more specific forecast information.
Weather Outlook for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service
A storm system will arrive from the Plains on Thursday and bring showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.
Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather will be possible for portions of Arkansas beginning Thursday
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could occur across the western two-thirds of Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) in the southwest part of the state, and that is where damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are most favorable.
National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing
A storm system arriving from the southern Plains will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas today and tonight.
Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur across the southern half to one-third of Arkansas today and tonight. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) toward the Gulf Coast, and that is where damaging winds/a few tornadoes are most favorable.
The forecast calls for an additional one-quarter of an inch to over one inch of rain across the state today and tonight. Locally heavier amounts are possible in the south and southeast portions of the state. Any flash flooding should be localized.
Sub-freezing temperatures possible Sunday morning over portions of Arkansas.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
Isolated severe storms could occur over western Arkansas today. Large hail would be the main concern.
Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur across mainly the southern half of Arkansas on Friday. The main concerns will be large hail and damaging winds; however, a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) toward the Gulf Coast, and that is where damaging winds and a few tornadoes are most favored.
The forecast calls for one to two inches of rain across much of the state, with locally heavier amounts possible in the north. Any flash flooding should be localized.
More rounds of showers and thunderstorms for Arkansas into Friday; weather briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
A front will be nearly stationary across southern Arkansas through at least Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will surround the front Wednesday and again Friday.
Storms that become severe will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind.
A new cold front will arrive from the Plains late Saturday into Sunday. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely accompany the front.
Late in the weekend and early next week, precipitation will become more spotty and it will heat up. Heat index values will likely exceed 100 degrees, mainly from Little Rock southward.
Severe weather expected in Arkansas Thursday and Friday
A cold front will sweep across Arkansas Thursday and Friday.
Showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the front, with potential for strong to severe storms to develop.
The primary hazards with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, with heavy rain and localized flash flooding.
The timing of the development of storms on Thursday will begin early this afternoon across west/northwest AR, with storms continuing to develop along and ahead of the front as it advances east/southeast through early Friday. Rainfall looks to persist through Friday evening across central, south, and eastern portions of the state.
Lookout Arkansas! Another round of severe storms on the way for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
The potential for widespread severe weather across much of the state remains for later this evening and into the overnight hours. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the state from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
Damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail will be possible as storms move across the state.
Initial storm development may occur across western Arkansas. These storms are expected to be isolated and capable of producing large hail and tornadoes as they move to the northeast.
By late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning, storms are expected to merge into a line and march east across the state. The main severe weather hazards with the line of storms will be damaging winds and QLCS-type tornadoes.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but should not be very widespread. The highest amounts are expected across far southern Arkansas.
Here we go again: 2nd tornado outbreak in 5 days looms for Midwest
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Many of the same areas in the central United States that were hit by violent thunderstorms on Friday will face a similar threat starting late Tuesday as another powerful system takes aim at the region with many modes of severe weather ranging from damaging winds to large hail and destructive tornadoes, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Like this past Friday, at least 16 states in the middle of the United States are at risk for severe weather and tornadoes from the latter part of Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The risk includes all of Missouri and Illinois, much of Arkansas and Iowa, and portions of Indiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
As of Monday morning, 80 of the over 100 reported tornadoes from Friday have already been confirmed by National Weather Service (NWS) officials, including one EF4 tornado in southeastern Iowa with winds estimated to be between 166 and 200 mph. There were at least nine EF3 tornadoes with winds between 136 and 165 mph.
Little Rock tornado survivor explains why he took a tornado warning ‘seriously for the first time’
By John Murphy, AccuWeather staff writer
Little Rock, Arkansas, resident Mike Green shared his harrowing experience of surviving the high-end EF3 tornado that caused significant destruction to his home Friday.
Green, a resident of the Stone Bridge neighborhood of Little Rock for eight years, has experienced countless tornado warnings, but his property had never been directly hit by a twister until March 31. On that day, Green was working at his home office when he heard on the news that a wall cloud had formed over Little Rock.
"I actually saw the wall cloud. So I took it seriously for the first time in my life. I took a tornado warning seriously," Green told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell.
Severe Weather to affect Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday
An active weather pattern is underway with the first round of severe weather expected this afternoon through tonight. An additional round of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through the early morning hours on Friday. Severe weather types include damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
The threat for flash flooding will increase across the central and northern portions of the state over the next few days.
Please see the attached briefing for more details.
National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR