Isolated severe storms could occur over western Arkansas today. Large hail would be the main concern.
Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur across mainly the southern half of Arkansas on Friday. The main concerns will be large hail and damaging winds; however, a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) toward the Gulf Coast, and that is where damaging winds and a few tornadoes are most favored.
The forecast calls for one to two inches of rain across much of the state, with locally heavier amounts possible in the north. Any flash flooding should be localized.
National Weather Service in Little Rock Weather Briefing
We are monitoring two potentially impactful weather events through early next week. The first, this Thursday and Friday, will bring another round of rain, storms, and winter weather. After a brief lull over much of the weekend, an Arctic front will make its way into the southern states, bringing well-below-average temperatures and potential for snow across much of the state.
The storm system Thursday/Friday will bring a half inch to an inch and a half of rain, with locally more than two inches. The highest rainfall totals are expected from central into northeast sections of the state. Isolated severe storms may occur in central and southern Arkansas. As colder air follows the system on Friday, rain will transition to light snow across the north/west (Ozark and Ouachita Mountains), with less than an inch of accumulation at most locations. Beginning Friday late morning, sustained wind speeds are forecast between 20 and 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. Precipitation will exit the state by Friday evening, with winds settling down by late Friday night.
By the weekend/early next week, Arctic air will surge into the region from the northwest. This will result in below to much below average temperatures. Once cold air is in place, it appears that wintry precipitation will become more likely Sunday night into Monday. There is a potential for heavy warning criteria snow (several inches). Stay tuned for specifics.
Wind advisory today and the possibility of severe weather returns Wednesday
Strong and gusty winds are forecast area-wide today, and chances for severe weather return tomorrow afternoon and evening. For more detailed information, please refer to the attached briefing.
Increased Threat of Severe Weather Friday Evening in Arkansas
A fairly major update has been made to the severe weather forecast through tonight. Here are the main points:
Moderate Risk introduced for all of western, southwestern AR
- Increased threat for tornadoes, some potentially significant, in and near southwest
AR. Damaging hail is also possible.
- Intense winds (up to 70-80 mph) possible as storms move across AR late evening
and overnight
Enhanced Risk expanded to include the southern half of AR.
Onset timing remains the same (5-7 PM), but storms will move across AR faster than previously thought with storms moving east of the MS River by 3-4 AM.
The attached briefing contains updated graphics pertaining to the severe threat and timing.
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Expected for Arkansas on Tuesday
A heavy rain event is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday in Arkansas, but it appears the amounts will not be quite as heavy as previously thought.
The forecast calls for three to four inches of rain (instead of four to six inches) from central into southwest Arkansas. Elsewhere across the state, one to three-inch amounts is expected. Given this much rain, there is the potential for flash flooding in places and rises in area rivers.
Click on the pic below for the attached weather briefing PDF from the National Weather Service.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
A strong storm system will affect Arkansas on Tuesday Night and Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread, moving into Arkansas late Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning and out of the state on Wednesday Evening.
Severe weather is possible, with the greatest likelihood over the southeast half of Arkansas. Storms that become severe will be capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, and there could be a few brief, weak tornadoes. It does appear that severe storms are more likely in areas south and east of Arkansas.
There will be areas of heavy rain. The forecast calls for one to two inches of precipitation at most locations. Isolated heavier amounts are possible, and this could cause localized flash flooding issues.
Strong winds are expected with the system, with gusts of 40 – 50 MPH possible, primarily over eastern portions of Arkansas and in the higher terrain of western Arkansas. This will create difficulty for higher profile vehicles, and cause hazardous conditions on area bodies of water.
(Click on the pic below for today’s Severe Weather Briefing PDF)
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
Click on pic above for the latest weather briefing.
Arkansas Severe Weather Briefing Wednesday, December 8th
Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect Through Thursday Morning
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of southwest Arkansas, Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma,
and Texas, including the following areas, in southwest
Arkansas, Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little
River, Miller, Nevada, and Sevier. In Louisiana, Bienville,
Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne, De Soto, Grant, Jackson, Lincoln,
Natchitoches, Red River, Sabine, Webster, and Winn. In
southeast Oklahoma, McCurtain. In Texas, Angelina, Bowie,
Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Franklin, Gregg, Harrison, Marion,
Morris, Nacogdoches, Panola, Red River, Rusk, Sabine, San
Augustine, Shelby, Smith, Titus, Upshur, and Wood.
* Through Thursday morning
* Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts of 3 inches or more possible.
* Flooding may occur in urban and poor drainage areas. Heavy
rainfall may also cause flooding of creeks, streams, and
rivers.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 7pm and 4am, then showers after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 66. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High near 78. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will exist Sunday afternoon and evening across the Four State Region along and ahead of a weak cold front that will shift southeast into the area. Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats with these storms, before they gradually diminish Monday morning. However, additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will become more numerous across the region Monday night through Wednesday north of the front, with the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas possible.