Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas today

• [WHAT] Strong to possibly a few severe thunderstorms are likely to impact Arkansas.

• [WHEN] Today, Tuesday March 4, 2025.

• [WHERE] Most of the state, but especially portions of central Arkansas, and all of southern Arkansas.

  [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• If the environment destabilizes enough, severe weather (including tornadoes) will become likely.

• Gusty winds in excess of 40+ mph will be possible ahead of the thunderstorm activity and after the passage of the thunderstorm activity through Wednesday.

  [KEEP IN MIND]

• The early arrival of precipitation (this morning) may keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. If rain arrives later, or progresses more slowly to the east, then destabilization will occur. This is very concerning given that available shear will be impressive (to promote tornadoes).

• This will be the last severe weather briefing regarding the severe thunderstorms moving across the state today.

The most widespread hazard across Arkansas today will be the risk for damaging wind gusts. Damaging wind gusts will be possible statewide; however, southern portions of the state will see the highest potential for severe winds. (Note the hatched area across southern Arkansas which indicates a 10% or greater chance for significant severe winds equal to or greater than 74 mph.)

Severe Weather for Arkansas possible on Tuesday

Ahead of a powerful storm system (“L”) in the southern Plains, there will be a lot of shear/turning with height (to promote tornadoes), with a southerly 50 to 70 knot jet at 850 millibars (5,000 feet) and a southwest 70 to 100+ knot jet at 500 millibars (18,000 feet).

• [WHAT] Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could impact the state early next week.

• [WHEN] Tuesday, March 4th.

• [WHERE] Across much of Arkansas, but especially the eastern half of the state.

  [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• A strong storm system and cold front are expected to approach by early next week.

• The system will try to bring warm, moist, and unstable air into the region from the Gulf Coast.

• If the environment destabilizes enough, severe weather (including tornadoes) will become likely.

  [WHAT HAS CHANGED]

• It appears an early arrival of precipitation (Tuesday morning) may keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. If rain arrives later, or progresses more slowly to the east, then destabilization will occur. This is very concerning given that available shear will be impressive (to promote tornadoes).

• Continue to monitor the latest briefings as we assess trends in medium to short-term model data.

Updated Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• WHAT HAS CHANGED: The Flood Watch has been expanded to include portions of northern central Arkansas.

• A strong storm system will approach the state from the southwest through the day today, and rainfall will become widespread from west to east across the area later this evening through Thursday.

• As the system moves through, excessive rainfall is possible from southeast Oklahoma across portions of western and northern Arkansas, resulting in increasing flash flooding potential. Area rivers and basins are also expected to see an increase in streamflow, with some locations possibly reaching flooding levels.

• Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly southern Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

• The threat for hazardous weather is expected to come to an end by Friday morning as the storm system moves east of the state.

The greatest probabilities for rainfall in excess of 3 inches currently lies across portions of western to central Arkansas, and primarily over the high terrain regions. A large probability exists for much of the northwestern half of the state to receive at least 2 inches of rainfall.

Heavy rain and severe weather possibilities for Arkansas this week

• A strong storm system will approach the state from the southwest in the coming days.

• Rain will become widespread from west to east across the area Wednesday evening through Thursday

• As the system moves through, heavy rainfall is possible from southeast Oklahoma across portions of western and northern Arkansas.

• Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly southern Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

• The threat for hazardous weather is expected to come to an end by Friday morning as the storm system moves east of the state.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing

A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is expected to move into western Arkansas Monday night ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rainfall has already fallen across a good portion of central, western, and northern Arkansas over the last 24-hours. Additional heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible through Tuesday (election day). Here is an in-depth briefing explaining expected weather conditions through Wednesday morning.

• Widespread rain fell yesterday and overnight leading to flooding across portions of northern Arkansas.

• Additional rainfall is expected today and into Tuesday as a cold front begins to push towards the state.

• An additional one to three inches will be possible through Tuesday

Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western Arkansas Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across the region into this evening. Late tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly northwest of the region. Look for strong south winds today outside thunderstorms with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible. There will continue to be an elevated fire threat due to very dry conditions with those conditions continuing until rainfall materializes later today into Thursday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern and southern Arkansas Thursday.

In SW AR, rain chances will continue through the end of the work week, into the upcoming weekend and into early next week as well. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms do not appear likely through early next week. Temperatures will remain mostly above normal through the extended period as well.

The forecast for Halloween evening calls for rain chances across the southeast with dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will largely be in the 50s and 60s.

National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing

A cold front will push through Arkansas from the Plains on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm conditions/well above normal temperatures will exist, creating a very unstable environment.

A broken line of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northwest counties Thursday afternoon. The line is then expected to move towards central and northeastern locations Thursday evening and night. There are indications the line will gradually weaken after the sun sets, and daytime heating is lost.

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, especially across northern and extreme western parts of the state. A low, but non-zero tornado chances exists across the northeastern half of the state.

Weather Outlook for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service

A storm system will arrive from the Plains on Thursday and bring showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.  

Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather will be possible for portions of Arkansas beginning Thursday

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could occur across the western two-thirds of Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) in the southwest part of the state, and that is where damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are most favorable.

Severe weather and heavy rainfall possibilities for the southern half of Arkansas through Wednesday

A front will be nearly stationary across southern Arkansas through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop near the front, with precipitation concentrated over the southern half of the state.

Storms that become severe will be capable of producing damaging wind and large hail in places.

Areas of heavy rain are expected, with two to more than three inch amounts across the southern counties. Given this much rain, there is a possibility of flash flooding.

Severe weather expected in Arkansas Thursday and Friday

• A cold front will sweep across Arkansas Thursday and Friday.

• Showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the front, with potential for strong to severe storms to develop.

• The primary hazards with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, with heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

• The timing of the development of storms on Thursday will begin early this afternoon across west/northwest AR, with storms continuing to develop along and ahead of the front as it advances east/southeast through early Friday. Rainfall looks to persist through Friday evening across central, south, and eastern portions of the state.

The National Weather Service indicates additional severe weather expected for Arkansas Tuesday and Wednesday

Rain and thunderstorms that moved across the state overnight have pushed east of the area. Rainfall amounts across southern Arkansas were generally in the 1-2 inch range. Amounts decrease as you go north.  

Mostly dry conditions are expected across the state today, southerly winds could be gusty at times. Very warm temperatures are expected today and Tuesday, highs could approach 90° in some areas both days.  

There will be an opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move across the state from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. All severe weather hazards appear possible, an enhanced risk of severe weather remains in place. The threat for severe weather should wrap up before noon Wednesday as a cold front moves east of the area.  

Locally heavy rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday, the highest amounts are expected across far southern Arkansas.