An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.
Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.
The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.
Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.
National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing
A cold front will push through Arkansas from the Plains on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm conditions/well above normal temperatures will exist, creating a very unstable environment.
A broken line of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northwest counties Thursday afternoon. The line is then expected to move towards central and northeastern locations Thursday evening and night. There are indications the line will gradually weaken after the sun sets, and daytime heating is lost.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, especially across northern and extreme western parts of the state. A low, but non-zero tornado chances exists across the northeastern half of the state.
Severe Weather to affect Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday
An active weather pattern is underway with the first round of severe weather expected this afternoon through tonight. An additional round of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through the early morning hours on Friday. Severe weather types include damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
The threat for flash flooding will increase across the central and northern portions of the state over the next few days.
Please see the attached briefing for more details.
National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR
Severe weather possible in Arkansas on Wednesday
A few strong to severe storms are possible from Wednesday into Wednesday night, especially across eastern, southern, and southeastern Arkansas.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
[TODAY] A strong storm system will be approaching the region through today, providing the next widespread thunderstorm chances on Thursday. In between now and then, a stalled boundary draped across the state will remain the focus for intermittent showers and thunderstorms today.
[THURSDAY] Our next main concern for organized severe weather will set up on Thursday as a cold front moves across the state from west to east. All severe hazards will be possible including damaging winds, some hail, and a few tornadoes.
[ADDITIONAL HAZARDS] Heavy to excessive rainfall and local flash flooding will remain a concern today and Thursday, given multiple rounds of precipitation have led to widespread saturated regions.
Please click on the pic below to see the attached briefing for more information.
Wednesday Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
Today will be the final day of a stretch of very active, and as we've seen, very impactful severe weather here in the Natural State.
As of this morning, the eastern 2/3rds portion of the state is at an enhanced risk (3/5) for severe weather, and the eastern 1/3rd (nearing the US-65 and I-530) corridor) is at a moderate risk (4/5) for severe weather today.
We expect to see an increase in coverage of stronger thunderstorms as an approaching cold front nears central Arkansas later this morning and into the afternoon. The severe threat will continue to increase across central and eastern Arkansas this afternoon and evening as a very favorable environment for severe weather will be in place.
We are expecting all severe hazards to be in play today, including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.
Additional non-thunderstorm hazards will also be noted in the attached briefing, including strong southerly gradient winds ahead of the cold front today, and potential frost conditions across northwest Arkansas Thursday morning.
Click on the pics below for today’s Severe Weather Briefing.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas
Today we will be kicking off a span of a very active weather pattern, with daily severe weather chances for most of the state. The biggest update to relay is an upgrade in the day 1 SPC outlook forecast, which now includes an enhanced risk (3/5) for severe weather over central and northern Arkansas for later this afternoon and evening.
Episodes of severe weather are expected to continue into Tuesday and Wednesday. Following today, Wednesday will be our primary concern for a widespread bout of severe weather across the state.
Please click on the pic below to see the attached briefing for the latest information.
Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Briefing from the National Weather Service
Click on pic above for NWS Weather Briefing 03/21/22 PDF
Severe Weather Possible Across Arkansas Overnight Thursday into Friday Morning
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas. .
Today and Tonight... By tonight, locally heavy rainfall from widespread showers and thunderstorms can produce isolated flash flooding, especially along the U.S. Highway 82 corridor in northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas. .
Friday through Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms will return across the region Thursday night and into Friday morning. This activity will be associated with a squall line, and some of these storms can be strong to severe, particularly north of I-20. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this activity.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio operators...and storm spotters may be needed for Thursday night. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.
Showers and Thunderstorm Activity Wednesday Morning
Today and Tonight...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
spread east northeast across much of the region this morning,
before diminishing from west to east late this morning through the
afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible this morning, with large hail the primary threat.
Additional scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
will move back into the region tonight, but no additional
hazardous weather is expected.
Thursday through Tuesday...
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move back into the
region Thursday night, and persist through much of Friday, before
diminishing from west to east Friday night with the passage of a
cold front. However, no hazardous weather is expected. Cooler and
drier conditions are expected for the upcoming weekend into the
start of the new work week.