A cold front will push through Arkansas beginning on Wednesday morning along the Arkansas/Missouri border in the north and traverse the state moving southward during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be present along this cold front as it moves across the state from north to south.
Re-development or rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity will be possible as the cold front moves across central and into southern Arkansas into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
NWS Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas June 3, 2024
A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a line that will enter northwestern Arkansas by Monday afternoon and sweep southeastward across the state into Monday evening.
Damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible in any storm that becomes severe.
The tornado threat in this environment remains very low, but not zero.
The Flash Flooding threat with this system is low, but locations that saw high rainfall totals with the activity from Thursday and locations that experience efficient rainfall producing cells this afternoon/evening may see flash flooding, especially in prone areas.
Severe Weather Possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas
An active weather pattern will continue across the region through the weekend, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms forecast through the weekend.
Chances for severe weather will be greatest across the southwest section of the state through tonight. The threat on Thursday will be less concentrated, but may be more focused for western sections. Chances for severe weather will be a tad lower on Friday…but return for Saturday and Sunday.
The primary threats expected with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging winds, with some tornadoes also possible. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds over 70 mph could be seen across southwest sections of the state this Wednesday afternoon.
Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Additional rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches could be seen through Memorial Day, especially across the south half of the state. Locally heavier amounts are possible. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.
National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing for Arkansas Tues-Thurs
Severe Threat for Arkansas Late This Afternoon and Tonight - (National Weather Service/Little Rock Graph)
An active weather pattern will develop starting late this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops southeast towards Arkansas.
Chances for severe weather will increase starting late this evening into the overnight hours across far northwest sections of Arkansas. This threat will spread further southeast for Wednesday, and continue for a large portion of the state on Thursday.
The primary threats expected with the strongest storms through tonight will be large hail and damaging winds, with a brief tornado or two possible. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats on Wednesday, with a few tornadoes also possible. Large hail and damaging winds will again be primary threats for Thursday.
There is some uncertainty regarding the severe threat on Wednesday as timing of morning thunderstorms may create less instability for afternoon thunderstorm development.
Some areas of heavy rainfall could be seen by late this week. Rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches could be seen from late tonight through Friday morning. This may lead to some isolated flash flooding.
Severe weather likely in Arkansas beginning Wednesday evening; briefing updated
Severe storms are expected to fire across Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Chances for severe weather will increase through the day as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.
All modes of severe weather are in play this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.
On Thursday, storms will be mostly south of Arkansas but could impact far southern portions of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards.
Minor updates have been made by the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR.
They include the addition of NW Arkansas to the Tornado Outlook and Overnight Timing Graphics.
Storms are expected to initially develop by early evening across northern and western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms will gradually shift eastward through the evening hours with the very large hail threat becoming slightly lower. The damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will persist. Activity should make it east of the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday.
Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS in Little Rock
After activity comes to an end this morning, some additional thunderstorms could develop across central into southeast Arkansas this evening into tonight. But, the severe weather threat with this activity remains low.
The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday during the evening into the overnight hours.
Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.
All modes of severe weather are in play. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
There is a potential for severe weather today through Wednesday. The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday.
In the near term, an outbreak of severe weather is expected in the Plains today. A line of strong/severe storms will approach northwest Arkansas tonight, but should weaken as it progresses into the state during the predawn hours Tuesday. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pop up Tuesday afternoon, but any severe weather will be spotty.
Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment. All modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding.
Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS Little Rock
A northward lifting warm front on Friday, in tandem with an approaching dryline from the west in eastern Oklahoma, will initiate an opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move into Arkansas.
All modes of severe weather will be possible from large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.
Excessive rainfall will also accompany this system which will present the risk for flash flooding, especially in vulnerable locations for flash flooding as early as Thursday through Friday night.
National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing
A cold front will push through Arkansas from the Plains on Thursday. Ahead of the front, very warm conditions/well above normal temperatures will exist, creating a very unstable environment.
A broken line of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northwest counties Thursday afternoon. The line is then expected to move towards central and northeastern locations Thursday evening and night. There are indications the line will gradually weaken after the sun sets, and daytime heating is lost.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, especially across northern and extreme western parts of the state. A low, but non-zero tornado chances exists across the northeastern half of the state.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
A powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front towards Arkansas Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop tracking across portions of central and northern Arkansas. Damaging straight-line winds and hail appear to be the primary concern associated with storms Tuesday afternoon.
An additional round of severe weather will be possible Thursday across portions of the state. Once again damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern with this system.
Severe Weather Briefing Monday night into Tuesday for Arkansas
After a quiet but breezy/warm weekend, a powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward Arkansas late Monday into late Tuesday night.
Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of Iowa and Nebraska to northern Texas Monday/Monday night. The focus for possible severe weather will shift eastward into Arkansas on Tuesday.
Damaging straight-line winds appear the primary thunderstorm hazard across Arkansas, although large hail and a tornado or two will be possible with any supercells that manage to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this evening and continue into Monday night. The only real change to the forecast is the computer models continue to slow the progression of the system down.
The northwest part of Arkansas continues to have the best chances of seeing severe weather with decreasing chances further to the southeast.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The computer models continue their trend of late in slowing the system down.
Some storms are expected to become strong to severe, especially over the northwest half of Arkansas. These locations will have the greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients Monday evening and into early Tuesday. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns and isolated tornadoes will be possible.
Large hail and damaging straight-line winds are possible across the rest of the state as well, but chances decrease toward the south and east as the storms are forecast to weaken.
Southerly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph will be possible on Monday afternoon and evening.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
There will be a brief window for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening over the south and southeast parts of the state. While there will be a lot of wind energy with this system, instability is low which will keep the severe threat limited.
Windy conditions are expected to develop before the actual system arrives and some parts of the state may see some locally heavy rain.
We continue to monitor a strong cold front that will be moving across the state Monday into Monday evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with higher gusts possible outside of any thunderstorm activity.
Strong gusty winds remain the primary threat with storms on Monday. While the tornado threat is minimal, it is not zero.
The greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients will lie over southern and southeastern Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening. While there is a tremendous amount of wind energy with this system, instability is limited.
Widespread rain is expected before the actual cold front arrives which will further decrease the chance of widespread severe weather.
In addition to severe weather, localized heavy rainfall is possible, primarily over the western half of the state. Some localized flash flooding issues may arise as a result.
Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern Oklahoma this afternoon and move into Arkansas later this afternoon and early evening. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards through later tonight.
The main changes with this briefing include:
-- An expansion of the "Enhanced Risk" area towards northeastern Arkansas
-- The introduction of a 10% Tornado Risk Area over northwestern to northern central Arkansas
Large and damaging hail remains the primary threat with storms today, though all modes of severe weather will be possible today and tonight.
Click on the attached briefing below for more specific forecast information.
Weather Outlook for Arkansas on Thursday from the National Weather Service
A storm system will arrive from the Plains on Thursday and bring showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.
Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather will be possible for portions of Arkansas beginning Thursday
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms could occur across the western two-thirds of Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) in the southwest part of the state, and that is where damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are most favorable.
National Weather Service Severe Weather Briefing
A storm system arriving from the southern Plains will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas today and tonight.
Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur across the southern half to one-third of Arkansas today and tonight. The main concern will be large hail and damaging winds, however a tornado can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) toward the Gulf Coast, and that is where damaging winds/a few tornadoes are most favorable.
The forecast calls for an additional one-quarter of an inch to over one inch of rain across the state today and tonight. Locally heavier amounts are possible in the south and southeast portions of the state. Any flash flooding should be localized.
Sub-freezing temperatures possible Sunday morning over portions of Arkansas.
Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service
Isolated severe storms could occur over western Arkansas today. Large hail would be the main concern.
Isolated to scattered severe storms could occur across mainly the southern half of Arkansas on Friday. The main concerns will be large hail and damaging winds; however, a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The environment will be most unstable (warm/moist) toward the Gulf Coast, and that is where damaging winds and a few tornadoes are most favored.
The forecast calls for one to two inches of rain across much of the state, with locally heavier amounts possible in the north. Any flash flooding should be localized.
Severe storms are possible for the upcoming weekend according to the National Weather Service
A strong cold front will surge through Arkansas from the Plains on Saturday. The front will trigger showers and thunderstorms.
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday as the front plows into an unseasonably mild (springlike) and unstable environment across the state. Data currently indicates all modes of severe weather (including tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will be possible.
Cooler and more seasonal air will follow the front Saturday night and Sunday. Residual moisture may yield a few snowflakes in the Ozark Mountains before precipitation ends Sunday afternoon.
Severe Weather Briefing for Wednesday evening from the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR
Toward evening, a strong storm system and associated cold front will approach from the Plains. A new round of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop in southern Missouri and sweep into northern Arkansas.
This could be a significant severe weather event, and somewhat unusual for August. This kind of event is more reminiscent of spring. Destructive winds and large hail are the main concerns, and an isolated tornado or two are possible.
Torrential downpours are expected in places. The forecast calls for two to three inches of rain in parts of the north, and this may result in localized flash flooding.
National Weather Service
Little Rock, Arkansas
Severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday in Arkansas
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today out ahead of a cold front, with additional development possible overnight Wednesday right along the cold front.
• Thunderstorms that become severe will be capable of producing damaging winds (up to 60 mph) and marginally severe hail (equal to or greater than 1 inch).
• The best chances for seeing severe thunderstorms will be this afternoon and early evening