There will be a brief window for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening over the south and southeast parts of the state. While there will be a lot of wind energy with this system, instability is low which will keep the severe threat limited.
Windy conditions are expected to develop before the actual system arrives and some parts of the state may see some locally heavy rain.
We continue to monitor a strong cold front that will be moving across the state Monday into Monday evening. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with higher gusts possible outside of any thunderstorm activity.
Strong gusty winds remain the primary threat with storms on Monday. While the tornado threat is minimal, it is not zero.
The greatest overlap of severe thunderstorm ingredients will lie over southern and southeastern Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening. While there is a tremendous amount of wind energy with this system, instability is limited.
Widespread rain is expected before the actual cold front arrives which will further decrease the chance of widespread severe weather.
In addition to severe weather, localized heavy rainfall is possible, primarily over the western half of the state. Some localized flash flooding issues may arise as a result.
