Serial storms in Arkansas ramp up residents’ anxiety, create flooding and danger

From the Arkansas Advocate:

Willadean Hergott of Jonesboro clutched a stuffed toy monkey while sitting in the Craighead County safe room in Jonesboro Friday evening and waited for the next round of storms.

“I don’t like tornadoes. I don’t like seeing what happened in Lake City,” she said, referring to a twister that smashed the western edge of the Craighead County town Wednesday evening with winds of 150 mph.

“You never know anymore where one will come up,” she said.

Hergott sat in a chair inside the shelter, which has a capacity for 600 people. She said she had the monkey for her grandchildren who would show up shortly.

Serial storms in Arkansas ramp up residents’ anxiety, create flooding and danger

National Weather Service Little Rock

The past several days of heavy rains engorged streams and rivers across Arkansas. This National Weather Service map forecasts flood stage at various points along major rivers

Severe Weather Continues Thursday for Arkansas

• WHAT - Widespread Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall. ○ Severe weather remains possible Thursday through Saturday across the majority of Arkansas. All modes of severe weather remain possible including a few tornadoes. ○ Extreme rainfall, with an additional 8 to 10 inches possible across parts of the state. This amount of rain is in addition to what has already fallen. Dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flooding and river flooding are expected.

• WHEN - Today through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat time frames: ■ (1) Thursday afternoon through Thursday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) ■ (3) Friday afternoon through Friday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) ■ (4) Saturday afternoon through Saturday night (southeast half of Arkansas) ○ Heavy rainfall and flash/river flooding threat Thursday through Saturday.

• WHERE - Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall through Saturday.

Attached is the latest weather briefing concerning this multi day severe weather and flooding event. In a nutshell, a large part of central Arkansas will be under an enhanced risk of severe weather Thursday and Friday with the threat area shifting south for Saturday.  All modes of severe weather will be possible.

Waves of heavy rain will impact the state through Saturday as several waves of low pressure interact with a stalled front. Parts of the state could see up to 10 inches of rain in addition to what fell on Wednesday.

Widespread and significant flash and river flooding are expected.

…….National Weather Service in Little Rock

Severe Weather Threat for Arkansas

• WHAT - Severe weather and heavy rainfall. ○ Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible on Wednesday with additional chances of severe weather Thursday through Saturday. . ○ Extremely heavy rainfall, more than 10 inches possible. Dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flooding and river flooding are expected.

• WHEN - Today through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat timeframes: (1) Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night (entire state) (2) Thursday afternoon through Thursday night (all but far northwest Arkansas) (3) Friday afternoon through Friday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) (4) Saturday afternoon through Saturday night (southeast half of Arkansas) ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• WHERE - Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Severe weather late Tuesday night for Arkansas; heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the remainder of the week

• [WHAT] Severe weather and heavy rainfall

• [WHEN] Late Tuesday night through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat late Tuesday night through Thursday. ○ Heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding threat Wednesday through Saturday.

• [WHERE] Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather as well as the heavy rainfall.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible in Arkansas this weekend

• The chances of strong to severe thunderstorms remain Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

• Multiple medium to long range models continue to show agreement in the possibility of severe weather, with the greatest confidence across the central and eastern sections of Arkansas.

• However, it should be noted that this possible severe weather event is still several days out and changes to the forecast are likely heading into the weekend.

• Monitor the latest briefings regarding the expected timing, severe weather impacts, along with the general location(s) potentially affected.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• The chances of strong to severe thunderstorms continue to increase this weekend, with a greater chance for severe weather possible on Sunday.

• Multiple medium to long range models are beginning to show agreement in the possibility of severe weather.

• Confidence has increased that Sunday is poised to be the day in which severe weather across Arkansas would possibly be the highest

• Click below for the latest weather outlook

Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas today

• [WHAT] Strong to possibly a few severe thunderstorms are likely to impact Arkansas.

• [WHEN] Today, Tuesday March 4, 2025.

• [WHERE] Most of the state, but especially portions of central Arkansas, and all of southern Arkansas.

  [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• If the environment destabilizes enough, severe weather (including tornadoes) will become likely.

• Gusty winds in excess of 40+ mph will be possible ahead of the thunderstorm activity and after the passage of the thunderstorm activity through Wednesday.

  [KEEP IN MIND]

• The early arrival of precipitation (this morning) may keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. If rain arrives later, or progresses more slowly to the east, then destabilization will occur. This is very concerning given that available shear will be impressive (to promote tornadoes).

• This will be the last severe weather briefing regarding the severe thunderstorms moving across the state today.

The most widespread hazard across Arkansas today will be the risk for damaging wind gusts. Damaging wind gusts will be possible statewide; however, southern portions of the state will see the highest potential for severe winds. (Note the hatched area across southern Arkansas which indicates a 10% or greater chance for significant severe winds equal to or greater than 74 mph.)

Severe Weather for Arkansas possible on Tuesday

Ahead of a powerful storm system (“L”) in the southern Plains, there will be a lot of shear/turning with height (to promote tornadoes), with a southerly 50 to 70 knot jet at 850 millibars (5,000 feet) and a southwest 70 to 100+ knot jet at 500 millibars (18,000 feet).

• [WHAT] Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could impact the state early next week.

• [WHEN] Tuesday, March 4th.

• [WHERE] Across much of Arkansas, but especially the eastern half of the state.

  [ADDITIONAL INFO]

• A strong storm system and cold front are expected to approach by early next week.

• The system will try to bring warm, moist, and unstable air into the region from the Gulf Coast.

• If the environment destabilizes enough, severe weather (including tornadoes) will become likely.

  [WHAT HAS CHANGED]

• It appears an early arrival of precipitation (Tuesday morning) may keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. If rain arrives later, or progresses more slowly to the east, then destabilization will occur. This is very concerning given that available shear will be impressive (to promote tornadoes).

• Continue to monitor the latest briefings as we assess trends in medium to short-term model data.

Updated Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• WHAT HAS CHANGED: The Flood Watch has been expanded to include portions of northern central Arkansas.

• A strong storm system will approach the state from the southwest through the day today, and rainfall will become widespread from west to east across the area later this evening through Thursday.

• As the system moves through, excessive rainfall is possible from southeast Oklahoma across portions of western and northern Arkansas, resulting in increasing flash flooding potential. Area rivers and basins are also expected to see an increase in streamflow, with some locations possibly reaching flooding levels.

• Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly southern Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

• The threat for hazardous weather is expected to come to an end by Friday morning as the storm system moves east of the state.

The greatest probabilities for rainfall in excess of 3 inches currently lies across portions of western to central Arkansas, and primarily over the high terrain regions. A large probability exists for much of the northwestern half of the state to receive at least 2 inches of rainfall.

Heavy rain and severe weather possibilities for Arkansas this week

• A strong storm system will approach the state from the southwest in the coming days.

• Rain will become widespread from west to east across the area Wednesday evening through Thursday

• As the system moves through, heavy rainfall is possible from southeast Oklahoma across portions of western and northern Arkansas.

• Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly southern Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

• The threat for hazardous weather is expected to come to an end by Friday morning as the storm system moves east of the state.

National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Briefing

A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms is expected to move into western Arkansas Monday night ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rainfall has already fallen across a good portion of central, western, and northern Arkansas over the last 24-hours. Additional heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible through Tuesday (election day). Here is an in-depth briefing explaining expected weather conditions through Wednesday morning.

• Widespread rain fell yesterday and overnight leading to flooding across portions of northern Arkansas.

• Additional rainfall is expected today and into Tuesday as a cold front begins to push towards the state.

• An additional one to three inches will be possible through Tuesday

Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western Arkansas Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today across the region into this evening. Late tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly northwest of the region. Look for strong south winds today outside thunderstorms with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible. There will continue to be an elevated fire threat due to very dry conditions with those conditions continuing until rainfall materializes later today into Thursday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern and southern Arkansas Thursday.

In SW AR, rain chances will continue through the end of the work week, into the upcoming weekend and into early next week as well. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms do not appear likely through early next week. Temperatures will remain mostly above normal through the extended period as well.

The forecast for Halloween evening calls for rain chances across the southeast with dry conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will largely be in the 50s and 60s.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service

• A cold front will push through Arkansas beginning on Wednesday morning along the Arkansas/Missouri border in the north and traverse the state moving southward during the day. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be present along this cold front as it moves across the state from north to south.

• Re-development or rejuvenation of thunderstorm activity will be possible as the cold front moves across central and into southern Arkansas into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday.

• Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns. The tornado threat is very low, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

NWS Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas June 3, 2024

• A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a line that will enter northwestern Arkansas by Monday afternoon and sweep southeastward across the state into Monday evening.

• Damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible in any storm that becomes severe.

• The tornado threat in this environment remains very low, but not zero.

• The Flash Flooding threat with this system is low, but locations that saw high rainfall totals with the activity from Thursday and locations that experience efficient rainfall producing cells this afternoon/evening may see flash flooding, especially in prone areas.

Severe weather likely in Arkansas beginning Wednesday evening; briefing updated

• Severe storms are expected to fire across Arkansas this afternoon into the overnight hours.

• Chances for severe weather will increase through the day as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

• All modes of severe weather are in play this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

• On Thursday, storms will be mostly south of Arkansas but could impact far southern portions of the state. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main hazards.

Minor updates have been made by the National Weather Service in Little Rock, AR.

They include the addition of NW Arkansas to the Tornado Outlook and Overnight Timing Graphics. 

Storms are expected to initially develop by early evening across northern and western Arkansas. These storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards. The storms will gradually shift eastward through the evening hours with the very large hail threat becoming slightly lower. The damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will persist. Activity should make it east of the Mississippi River by daybreak Thursday.

Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS in Little Rock

After activity comes to an end this morning, some additional thunderstorms could develop across central into southeast Arkansas this evening into tonight. But, the severe weather threat with this activity remains low.

The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday during the evening into the overnight hours.

Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment.

All modes of severe weather are in play. Very large hail up to baseball size and wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main threats, with tornadoes also possible. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding as well.

Severe Weather Briefing for Arkansas from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• There is a potential for severe weather today through Wednesday. The greatest risk of severe storms in Arkansas will be on Wednesday.

• In the near term, an outbreak of severe weather is expected in the Plains today. A line of strong/severe storms will approach northwest Arkansas tonight, but should weaken as it progresses into the state during the predawn hours Tuesday. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pop up Tuesday afternoon, but any severe weather will be spotty.

• Chances for severe weather will increase Wednesday as a storm system tracks from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and drags a cold front into Arkansas. Ahead of the front, well above average temperatures and humid conditions will create a very unstable environment. All modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes. Heavy downpours may lead to localized flash flooding.

Severe Weather Briefing from the NWS Little Rock

• A northward lifting warm front on Friday, in tandem with an approaching dryline from the west in eastern Oklahoma, will initiate an opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move into Arkansas.

• All modes of severe weather will be possible from large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.

• Excessive rainfall will also accompany this system which will present the risk for flash flooding, especially in vulnerable locations for flash flooding as early as Thursday through Friday night.

Severe Weather Briefing from the National Weather Service in Little Rock

• A powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front towards Arkansas Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop tracking across portions of central and northern Arkansas. Damaging straight-line winds and hail appear to be the primary concern associated with storms Tuesday afternoon.

• An additional round of severe weather will be possible Thursday across portions of the state. Once again damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern with this system.

Severe Weather Briefing Monday night into Tuesday for Arkansas

• After a quiet but breezy/warm weekend, a powerful storm system in the central Plains will drag a cold front toward Arkansas late Monday into late Tuesday night.

• Ahead of the front, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of Iowa and Nebraska to northern Texas Monday/Monday night. The focus for possible severe weather will shift eastward into Arkansas on Tuesday.

• Damaging straight-line winds appear the primary thunderstorm hazard across Arkansas, although large hail and a tornado or two will be possible with any supercells that manage to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms.