Severe weather (4/4) and continued heavy rainfall expected for much of Arkansas Friday - NWS/NOAA

The threat for severe weather continues for this Friday into Friday night. All modes of severe weather will be possible including very large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes.

Specifics About Hazards (If Any): A warm front will lift northward into Arkansas today, eventually stalling out once again across the north-central and west-central sections of the state. Conditions along and south of the front will become very unstable by this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. A few long- track tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

There is a high risk for excessive rainfall today into tonight for a large portion of the state. Several inches of rainfall are possible, which may lead to flash and river flooding.

Thunderstorms will remain likely on Saturday into Saturday night, with strong to severe weather potential remaining. All modes of severe weather will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The highest threat for severe weather on Saturday will be across the southeastern two-thirds of the area.

Areas of heavy rainfall will continue on Saturday into Saturday night as well, with the threat for flash and river flooding continuing to remain a very significant hazard.

Expect the threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather to exit the region by Sunday afternoon. Some areas could see temperatures dropping into the low and mid 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. This may result in some frost or freeze conditions for some areas over northwestern portions of the state. Otherwise, the threat for hazardous weather will become low into the middle of next week.

Several inches of additional rainfall are expected through Sunday morning. Most areas could see an additional 4 to 6 inches, with some areas seeing potentially over 8 inches.

Spotter Activation (Day 1 - Friday/Friday Night): (More Widespread Severe Weather). Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected. The focus area includes much of Arkansas. You can help by monitoring and forwarding severe weather information. If there are strong to severe storms (i.e. wind damage, quarter size hail or larger, etc.) at your location, please consider submitting a report via an online form found here. Thank you for your assistance!

Severe Weather Continues Thursday for Arkansas

• WHAT - Widespread Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall. ○ Severe weather remains possible Thursday through Saturday across the majority of Arkansas. All modes of severe weather remain possible including a few tornadoes. ○ Extreme rainfall, with an additional 8 to 10 inches possible across parts of the state. This amount of rain is in addition to what has already fallen. Dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flooding and river flooding are expected.

• WHEN - Today through Saturday night. ○ Severe weather threat time frames: ■ (1) Thursday afternoon through Thursday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) ■ (3) Friday afternoon through Friday night (all but far northwest and far southeast Arkansas) ■ (4) Saturday afternoon through Saturday night (southeast half of Arkansas) ○ Heavy rainfall and flash/river flooding threat Thursday through Saturday.

• WHERE - Most of the state will be at risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall through Saturday.

Attached is the latest weather briefing concerning this multi day severe weather and flooding event. In a nutshell, a large part of central Arkansas will be under an enhanced risk of severe weather Thursday and Friday with the threat area shifting south for Saturday.  All modes of severe weather will be possible.

Waves of heavy rain will impact the state through Saturday as several waves of low pressure interact with a stalled front. Parts of the state could see up to 10 inches of rain in addition to what fell on Wednesday.

Widespread and significant flash and river flooding are expected.

…….National Weather Service in Little Rock

NWS Severe Weather Outlook for Arkansas June 3, 2024

• A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a line that will enter northwestern Arkansas by Monday afternoon and sweep southeastward across the state into Monday evening.

• Damaging wind gusts and quarter sized hail will be possible in any storm that becomes severe.

• The tornado threat in this environment remains very low, but not zero.

• The Flash Flooding threat with this system is low, but locations that saw high rainfall totals with the activity from Thursday and locations that experience efficient rainfall producing cells this afternoon/evening may see flash flooding, especially in prone areas.

National Weather Service Excessive Rainfall Briefing for SW Arkansas

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Arkansas...northwest Louisiana...
  southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas, including the following
  areas, in Arkansas, Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little
  River, Miller, Nevada, Sevier and Union. In northwest Louisiana,
  Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne and Webster. In southeast Oklahoma,
  McCurtain. In northeast Texas, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee,
  Franklin, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris, Panola, Red River,
  Rusk, Smith, Titus, Upshur and Wood.

* From 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning

* Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts
  possible. Rain amounts may occur in a short period of time and may
  impact locations that have seen heavy rainfall over the last few
  days.

* Flooding may occur in urban and poor drainage areas.  Heavy
  rainfall may also cause flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You
should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

We are expecting an active day across the state regarding heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential. With the morning forecast package, the Weather Prediction Center introduced a Moderate risk of excessive rainfall for much of southwest and central Arkansas. The potential 2 to 3 inches of rain over the risk area with some locally greater amounts coupled with antecedent heavy rainfall the last few days has led to a compromised soil surface and increased flash flooding vulnerability. Please see the attached briefing for more in depth information regarding flash flooding potential over the next few days.