National Weather Service statement regarding Tropical Storm Laura and its possible effect on Arkansas
Tropical Storm Laura Impacts to Arkansas
What’s Coming
• Tropical Storm Laura is expected to strengthen into a hurricane today over the Gulf of Mexico.
• Laura is forecast to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning along the northern Gulf coast near the Texas/Louisiana border.
• The storm center will lift north over Arkansas sometime Thursday afternoon into Friday. Impacts could be felt as early as Wednesday afternoon and night.
Hazards
• Heavy rain/flash
• Strong winds/wind gusts (mainly southern Arkansas)
• Isolated tornadoes (mainly central/eastern Arkansas)
Discussion
The latest official forecast track has Laura making landfall near the Texas/Louisiana coast as a major hurricane Wednesday night or early Thursday Morning, with the storm moving into Arkansas Thursday afternoon or evening.
Specific impacts will be determined by Laura's track across Arkansas, and slight variations could significantly alter the forecast.
Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall is a given, especially near and to the east of the center as rain bands repeatedly move over the same areas. Based on the latest forecast, western and central Arkansas will be the prime areas for heavy rainfall, with amounts of four to six inches likely, and localized totals in excess of seven inches.
While most of central and eastern Arkansas has been running below average on rainfall as of late, portions of southwest and western Arkansas have been running five to ten inches above average month to date.
We definitely think flash flooding will be a concern, but it would likely take longer to materialize in the driest areas.
Winds...
Even as Laura moves into Arkansas, it is likely to still be maintaining tropical storm strength.
· Sustained winds of 30 to 40 MPH will be possible surrounding the center of circulation, and gusts could approach or even briefly exceed 50 MPH.
· While the winds alone are enough cause for concern, any areas that have experienced heavy rainfall could see more downed trees due to saturated ground.
Tornadoes...
Tornadoes will be possible in the bands north and east of the center of circulation. These are the types of tornadoes that tend to be very brief and move south to north or southeast to northwest. They are particularly challenging to warn for, as they tend to be shallow and short-lived.
Threat timing (Greatest potential)...
Heavy rainfall - Thursday and Friday
Winds - Thursday Afternoon and Evening
Tornadoes - Thursday and Thursday Night
As far as rivers are concerned, with the current amount of rainfall expected, we could see rises in the Ouachita, Saline, Fourche Lafave, Little Missouri and Arkansas basins.
Again, any change in the anticipated track of Laura could alter the forecast significantly.
NWS meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation and adjust the forecast as necessary.
Continue to monitor the latest information from the National Hurricane Center and your Arkansas NWS forecast offices.
National Weather Service
Little Rock, Arkansas
